-USDA Oilseeds Crushings report expected to show all-time record crush in Dec
-USDA reports routine old crop corn sales to Mexico/new crop soybeans to China
-India proposes lowering corn/wheat import taxes
-US cattle inventory at 7-year low
After trading mostly lower during the overnight session, soybeans rallied into the break and head into the day session 10-11 cents higher with March breaking above $15.00. Corn was 2-4 cents higher overnight, while wheat recovered somewhat from yesterday’s weakness, with gains of 7-9 cents overnight in CBOT.
 USDA’s monthly Oilseeds Crushings report will be out this afternoon. The average estimate of December U.S. soybean crush is 197.7 million bushels (197.3-198.4 million range of ideas), reflecting a new all-time monthly record crush in beating October 2021’s 196.9 million bushels. The average estimate reflects nationwide crush 6.0% larger than NOPA-member crush, comparable to the 6.1% difference for November, but a bit less than the 6.5% average difference over the last six months. For comparison, November nationwide soybean crush was 190.5 million bushels, while year ago Dec crush was 193.1 million bushels. The average estimate of end December U.S. soybean oil stocks is 2.565 billion pounds (2.490-2.630 billion range of
ideas), reflecting expectations for nationwide soybean oil stocks to be 26.3% larger than NOPA-member stocks, well below the 31.8% and 30.1% differences in Nov and Oct, respectively. Over the last six months, U.S. total soybean oil stocks averaged 30.7% larger than NOPA member stocks, which would imply the potential for Dec soybean oil stocks closer to 2.655 billion pounds, but we would note nationwide SBO stocks in December the last two years have seen the difference with NOPA stocks be lower than difference in preceding months, lending some support to seeing stocks closer to the average estimate. Even with the lower average trade estimate, Dec soybean oil stocks would still easily be the highest in nine years as the largest stocks for the month since 2013 were 2.134 billion pounds in 2019. November soybean oil stocks were 2.415 billion pounds, while year ago Dec stocks were 2.111 billion pounds.
ï‚· USDA reported 110k tonnes of corn sold to Mexico this morning for 2021/22 delivery and 132k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2022/23 new crop.
 India’s government proposed lowering import taxes on many commodities from energies to industrial products to grains. Specifically for grains, the proposed changes would lower the import tax on wheat to 40% from 100% currently and for corn to 50% from 60% currently, effective May 1. India is estimated to see 8-year high wheat exports this year of 5.3 MMT (2.6 MMT last year) and rarely imports any quantity of wheat so the change is unlikely to have much, if any, impact, and while India is typically a net exporter of 1-3 MMT of corn annually, the government did allow 500k tonnes of corn to be imported over the last year at a reduced import tariff of 15% as help for high feed prices for the poultry industry. However, record Indian corn
exports were only 327k tonnes in 2019/20, while USDA still only expects this year’s imports to be 300k tonnes, so the reduced import tariff on corn likely would not have a considerable impact either.
 Brazil’s soybean crop is 11% harvested vs 5% last week, 1% last year and 6% average according to Safras & Mercado. The 1st corn crop is 21% harvested vs 14% last year and 11% average, while the 2nd corn crop (safrinha) is 11% planted vs 2% last week, 3% last year and 7% average.
ï‚· Tunisia tendered for 100k tonnes of soft wheat, 75k tonnes of durum and 75k tonnes of barley for March-April shipment, while Iran tendered for 60k tonnes each of soybean meal and barley with offers due by tomorrow.
 Yesterday afternoon’s USDA Bi-Annual Cattle Inventory report showed the total U.S. all cattle/calves herd as of January 1 was 91.9 million head, down 2% from last year vs average expectations for a 1.2% decline and was the lowest in 7 years. The U.S. beef cow herd as of Jan 1 at 30.1 million head was down 2.3% from last year and also the lowest in 7 years.