-Hot/dry conditions spur grain gains
-Corn/spring wheat conditions expected to dip – 1st soybean conditions this afternoon
-USDA reports Thursday – trade estimate summary included
-Russian wheat crop ideas ticked higher
-Mato Grosso forecast remains dry Grain markets were sharply higher overnight following the weekend heat and continued hot/dry conditions expected in the west this week. USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports will be out on Thursday. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44109. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the last page.
 This afternoon’s Crop Progress update is expected to show a slight dip in corn conditions from last week’s 76% g/e rating, while the first soybean condition update of the year will be provided, as well. Last year’s initial rating was 70% g/e a week earlier and was 72% g/e this week, while the average initial rating over the last five years has been 67% g/e. Another decline in spring wheat conditions is likely, as well, already at a historically low 43% g/e last week.
 Preliminary trade data showed China imported 9.61 MMT of soybeans in May, up from 7.45 MMT in May and comparable to last year’s 9.38 MMT. Oct-May marketing year to date imports of 64.0 MMT are up solidly from 57.8 MMT last year. June and July imports are both expected to be more than 10 MMT.
 IKAR ticked their estimate of the Russian wheat crop up to 80.0 MMT from 79.5 MMT previously and compares to USDA last at 85.0 MMT and last year’s IKAR-reflected crop of 85.9 MMT (USDA 85.4 MMT).
ï‚· Algeria tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for July-Aug shipment period. In their previous tender in May, Algeria
bought 400k tonnes of wheat at $295/tonne c&f.
 Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data, for the week ended 6/01/21, showed funds modest net buyers in corn, but mostly noneventful in other grain/oilseed markets. Specifically, funds were net buyers of 21.8k contracts in corn, holding moderate net long of 290k contracts, net sellers of 0.6k contracts in soybeans (net long 139k) and net sellers of 1.3k contracts in CBOT wheat (net long 3k). Funds were net sellers of 4.3k contracts in SBM (net long 21k), net buyers of 0.8k SBO (net long 86k), net sellers of 4.4k KCBT wheat (net long 19k) and net sellers of 1.2k MPLS wheat (net long 13k).
Weather
Precip over the weekend was quite limited with only limited amounts in the southeastern halves of MO and IL and W IN, while
portions of ND finally saw some decent rains. Specifically, total corn belt coverage was only 15% of .25-1.25†amounts, while
amounts in ND were mostly .25-.75†but locally up to 1.25â€. Over the next five days, roughly 45% of the Northern Plains are
expected to see additional rains, with decent rains slated for the eastern belt, with limited rains expected in the western belt.
Parana and MGDS are expected to see good rains this week, with more potentially in the 11-15 day period, while the outlook for Mato Grosso remains dry
