-NOPA crush report Monday
-USDA reports more new crop corn sales to China
-China hog recovery continues
-Argentina focuses on soybean harvest, corn remains slow
-Some rain chances for Mato Grosso in forecast
ï‚· On Monday, NOPA will release their monthly soybean crush report. The average estimate of April soybean crush by NOPA members is 168.7 million bushels (162.8-172.0 million range of ideas) vs 178.0 million in March and 171.8 million bushels last year April. The average estimate reflects a 1.8% decline from year ago, exactly the same as the March year-over-year decline, and would imply a nationwide crush for the month of around 178.5 million bushels vs 183.4 million bushels last year. The average estimate of end April soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 1.785 billion pounds (1.682-1.850 billion range of ideas), up slightly from March stocks of 1.771 billion, but solidly below year ago April stocks of 2.111 billion pounds. Over the previous five years, April NOPA soybean oil stocks ranged from 1.725-2.111 billion pounds.
 The USDA reported new crop, 2021/22, corn sales of 1.360 MMT to China this morning. Since yesterday’s Export Sales “as of†date, USDA has reported another 3.740 MMT of corn sales to China, which would put their total reported purchases so far at 5.1 MMT.
 Brazilian ag consultant Datagro estimates farmers have sold 72% of this year’s soybean crop vs 81% at this time last year and 64% average. New crop sales of next year’s crop are estimated at 15% vs 28% last year and 12% average.
ï‚· Mystery continues around the sudden halt of operations at privately-owned Chinese ag consultancy Cofeed. In operation for nearly 20 years, Cofeed compiled data regarding crush operations in the country, soybean/product stocks at ports, estimated crush margins, etc., but suddenly when dark. Reuters reports their location on the outskirts of Beijing was sealed by police on April 29.
 China’s sow herd rose a marginal 1.1% from March and was 23% larger than year ago levels according the latest update from the ag ministry. They said sow numbers have largely returned to normal, stating they were at 97.6% of end-2017 levels. The expansion of large-sized pig farms continues, with 180k farms designated as such vs 161k at the beginning of 2020.
ï‚· The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said the Argentine soybean harvest is 71% complete, while corn harvest is 25% complete. They left their estimates of the crops unchanged for now at 43.0 MMT and 46.0 MMT, respectively (USDA 47.0 MMT for both). The Argentine ag secretary put the soybean harvest at 67% complete vs 53% last week and 66% average, while the corn harvest was seen at 34% complete vs 32% last week and 41% average.
 Ukraine’s corn crop is 74% planted vs roughly 90% at this time last year. Early growing conditions remain favorable.
 French soft wheat conditions were unchanged last week at 79% good/excellent, halting a 4-week run of declining conditions, following the return of rains across growing areas. Last year’s crop was only 55% g/e at this time.
Weather
NOTE: We have added weather model-estimated precip summary tables to our daily comments. The tables summarize the GFS and European model’s estimated precip by region and by period, along with the change in estimated precip from the forecast 24 hours prior.
The U.S. table below compiles estimated state-average precip forecasts into regional averages: WCB (NE, MN, IA, MO), ECB (IL, IN, OH, WI), S. Plains (KS, OK, TX), N. Plains (ND, SD). On the following page, tables including precip estimates by state, as well as Brazilian safrinha corn areas and Ukraine production areas are also available.
The first decent rain opportunity for Mato Grosso showed up with the GFS indicating the potential for at least a half inch in the 6-10 day period and another similar shot in the 11-15 day period, as well. Modest rains also remain in the forecast for Parana and MDGS in the same periods. The next five days, though, remain dry.
Precip activity over the last 24 hours was limited with most the corn belt dry, with the only rains seen across central NE of .25-1â€. Light rains were seen in the eastern halves of ND and SD, while north central KS saw .25-.75â€.