-USDA reports China old crop corn cancellation/another large new crop sale
-Malaysian palm oil stocks higher than expected
-US temps to warm/good weekend rains
-Brazilian forecast remains mostly dry
-USDA reports Wednesday
The forecast for Brazilian safrinha corn areas remains mostly dry through the 15-day period, although decent rains for Parana remain in the forecast this week. USDA monthly WASDE and Crop Production reports will be out Wednesday. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43806. A summary of the average trade estimate is on page 3.
ï‚· USDA reported the cancellation of 280k tonnes of old crop, 2020/21, corn by China this morning, bringing total cancellations in recent days to 420k tonnes. However, USDA also reported the sale of another 1.020 MMT of new crop, 2021/22, corn to China this morning, as well.
 The Malaysia Palm Oil Board’s monthly report showed end April palm oil stocks hit a 5-month high at 1.546 MMT, coming in sharply above average expectations of 1.442 MMT (1.402-1.596 MMT range of ideas) and up from March stocks of 1.444 MMT. Year ago April stocks were 2.044 MMT. April palm oil production of 1.523 MMT was a bit below average expectations of 1.550 MMT, but up from 1.423 MMT in March, but below last year’s 1.653 MMT. Malaysia exported 1.339 MMT of palm oil in April, slightly above expectations of 1.300 MMT and up from 1.189 MMT in March and 1.236 MMT last year.
ï‚· U.S. corn planting this afternoon is expected to be 65-68% complete vs 52% average/65% last year, while soybean planting 37-40% complete vs 22% average/36% last year. Spring wheat planting is expected to be 66-70% complete vs 51% average/40% last year.
 Ukraine spring planting continues without issue as 46% of the corn crop is now planted, as well as 95% of expected barley area. Sunflower planting is 50% complete, while soybeans are 18% planted. Total spring grain planting is now 58% complete, well behind last year’s fast, dryness-aided 86% completion rate at this time, with weather remaining mostly favorable overall.
ï‚· South Korea bought 60k tonnes of Black Sea feed wheat for June shipment at $329.90/tonne c&f.
 China’s weekly state reserve wheat auction saw minimal interest with only 143k tonnes of the 4.003 MMT offered being sold, with sales over the last five weeks being quite limited.
 Friday’s Disaggregated CFTC COT data for futures/options combined, for the week ended 5/04/21, showed funds minor net sellers of 6.1k contracts in corn (net long 372.5k), 5.2k soybeans (net long 174.8k), 2.7k CBOT wheat (net long 10.7k) and 5.1k SBO (net long 87.5k). Funds were small net buyers in KCBT wheat of 4.0k contracts (net long 34.0k) and 1.8k MPLS wheat (net long 15.9k), while being essentially net even in SBM for the week, holding a net long of 54.2k contracts.
Weather
NOTE: We have added weather model-estimated precip summary tables to our daily comments. The tables summarize the GFS and European model’s estimated precip by region and by period, along with the change in estimated precip from the forecast 24 hours prior. The U.S. table below compiles estimated state-average precip forecasts into regional averages: WCB (NE, MN, IA, MO), ECB (IL, IN, OH, WI), S. Plains (KS, OK, TX), N. Plains (ND, SD). On the following page, tables including precip estimates by state, as well as Brazilian safrinha corn areas and Ukraine production areas are also available.
Precip activity over the weekend in the corn belt included .50-1.5†(locally 4â€) and 60% coverage, with most of IA, and the northern halves of IL, IN and OH seeing the highest totals, but nearly all areas saw some rains, with the exception of MN and WI, as well as the western 2/3 of NE. The Central/Southern Plains saw .25-1.25†with 25% coverage (heaviest amounts in eastern ½ of KS, but also decent amounts in the panhandles and western ½ of OK. The Northern Plains saw .25-1†with 40% coverage, including the SW 1/3 of ND and much of SD.
Cool temps look to hold on this week, but a change to normal/above normal temps is expected in the 6-15 day period.