-USDA reports today at 11:00 AM CT – trade estimate summary included
-China lowers vegoil import estimate – holds corn/soybean balance sheets unchanged
-India wheat export selling continues strong
-France raises wheat export estimate – says balance sheet can handle more
-Palm oil sharply higher as Indonesia raises domestic selling requirement
The USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be out today at 11:00 AM CT. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the last page. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/46774.
 In their monthly balance sheet updates, China left their 2021/22 corn and soybean outlooks completely unchanged from last month, with corn imports at 20.0 MMT (29.6 MMT last year) and soybean imports at 102.0 MMT (99.8 MMT last year) vs USDA currently at 26.0 MMT and 97.0 MMT, respectively. China lowered their estimate of 2021/22 total vegoil imports to 8.53 MMT from 10.74 MMT previously and would be down solidly from last year’s 10.74 MMT. However, their estimate of soybean oil imports ticked up to 1.2 MMT from 1.0 MMT previously (1.23 MMT last year), while estimated palm oil and rapeseed oil imports were left unchanged at 4.5 MMT (5.0 last year) and 1.5 MMT (2.37 last year), respectively. Estimated total vegoil
consumption was left unchanged at 36.34 MMT (36.35 MMT last year), with the reduced imports pulling vegoil ending stocks down to 1.58 MMT from 2.38 MMT previously/2.68 MMT last year.
ï‚· India is believed to have sold around 500k tonnes of wheat for export in recent days as global buyers continue shifting/adjusting to alternative supplies in light of the Black Sea region situation.
ï‚· Bulgaria said they will buy an additional 1.1 MMT of wheat from domestic farmers to add to state stockpiles, which may limit export activity until the desired level of purchases is met. It was said there are around 3 MMT of wheat stocks nationwide currently available, with 300k tonnes in state reserves.
 France sharply raised their estimate of 21/22 wheat exports outside the EU to 9.7 MT from 8.9 MMT previously (7.4 MMT last year) as selling has increased notably of late given the lack of Black Sea supply availability. Estimated wheat ending stocks were lowered accordingly, to 3.0 MMT from 3.6 MMT previously. They said the balance sheet would still allow for an additional 500k-1.0 MMT in exports beyond today’s revision.
ï‚· Malaysian palm oil futures were sharply higher overnight following Indonesia announcing the required amount of palm oil/olein being sold into the domestic market will now be 30% of planned exports, up from 20% initially established in late January, further restricting exports from the country.
The new restrictions will be in place for at least six months. It is estimated the change could remove an additional 100k tonnes of palm oil per month from exports.
 The Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) sees 2022 crude palm oil production in the country rising modestly to 48 MMT from 46.9 MMT in 2021, with exports declining to 29.8 MMT from 33.7 MMT last year. They expect 2022 palm oil ending stocks to surge to 7.0 MMT, although it wasn’t specified if that was calendar year or marketing year stocks. Regardless, those ideas reflect a huge increase with end 2021 calendar year stocks being 3.57 MMT and Oct 2021 (20/21 marketing year) stocks being 3.40 MMT. Oil World sees global palm oil production rising by 2.7 MMT in 2021/22 from last year,
with total South American soybean production falling 21 MMT from last year. The USDA’s current estimates for Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay combined reflect a decline of only 8 MMT from last year, but they clearly remain much too high and should be lowered solidly in today’s WASDE report.
ï‚· Widely-followed palm oil industry analyst Dorab Mistry said he sees Malaysian palm oil futures potentially declining to 5,000 ringgit/tonne ($1196) midyear (benchmark May futures currently ~ 6,900 ringgit ($1650) and eventually to 4,000 ringgit/tonne ($967) by September. He sees 2022 Malaysian palm oil production rising to 19.0 MMT from 18.1 MMT last year, with Indonesian production rising 2 MMT in 2022. Conversely, also widely-followed analyst James Fry sees locally delivered Malaysian palm oil prices ranging from 6600-8100 ringgit/tonne through July and potentially easing only to
6200-7000 ringgit/tonne through the end of 2022.
 In rather vague comments, Russia’s prime minister said they need to prioritize grain supplies being available for domestic needs over exports and that the government will define the list of goods subject to import and export bans shortly.
 Argentina’s ag minister said farmers have sold 16.6 MMT of this year’s estimated 51.0 MMT corn crop (32.5%) so far, with strong selling of 688k tonnes over the last week, more than twice sales during the same week last year, as the spike in global prices prompted farmer selling. Farmer soybean sales were put at 9.0 MMT so far (21.4% of the estimated crop) vs 11.1 MMT in sales last year at this time (24.0% of the crop).
 Brazilian ag exporter association now sees soybean exports from the country hitting 13.77 MMT in March, up sharply from previous ideas of 11.78 MMT, and would be a new record for the month beating last year’s 12.7 MMT. The expect no corn to be exported in March vs 289k tonnes last year.
ï‚· USDA reported 20k tonnes of soybean was sold to unknown for 21/22 delivery, as well as 100k tonnes of corn to Colombia for 21/22 this morning.