-Canada quarterly wheat stocks report sharply lower than expected
-Brazil’s Mato Grosso soybean crop estimate raised solidly further into record territory
-USDA reports new crop soybean sales to China/unknown
-Brazil soybean harvest/safrinha corn planting remains fast
-South American rain outlook not the best
-Trade estimate summary for tomorrow’s USDA report
USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be out tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis is available on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/46534. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the last page.
 Canada released their equivalent of the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report this morning, providing grain stocks data as of Dec 31, 2021. Canadian all wheat stocks were reported at 15.564 MMT, sharply below average market expectations of 17.3 MMT (17.2-17.8 MMT range of ideas) and last year’s 25.090 MMT. Dec 31 canola stocks were reported at 7.561 MMT, in line with average expectations of 7.5 MMT (6.9-8.1 MMT range) and compared to 13.284 MMT last year, while Dec 31 oat stocks were reported at 1.657 MMT, in line with the average estimate (1.5-1.9 MMT range) and compared to 2.722 MMT last year. Barley stocks as of Dec 31 of 3.146 MMT were a bit below the average estimate of 3.3 MMT (3.0-3.8 MMT range) and compared to 5.580 MMT last year. Durum wheat stocks of 2.094 MMT compared to the average trade estimate of 2.0 MMT (1.9-2.1 MMT range) and 4.806 MMT last year.
 Mato Grosso’s state ag agency IMEA raised their estimate of this year’s soybean crop to a record 39.5 MMT from 38.1 MMT estimated last month and compares to CONAB’s last official estimate of 38.3 MMT and last year’s 36.5 MMT, which is the current record. This year’s state average yield is estimated to be up 5% from last year. Additionally, they said given the strong soybean harvest pace, they expect 94% of this year’s safrinha corn planting to occur during what is considered the ideal window, with a favorable above average rainfall expectation for the March-May period.
ï‚· USDA reported more soybean sales this morning, all for new crop 2022/23 with 132k tonnes to China and 332k tonnes to unknown.
ï‚· According to Safras & Mercado, the Brazilian soybean crop is 17% harvested vs 11% last week, 3% last year and 10% average, with Mato Grosso 46% complete vs 29% average. First corn crop harvest is 26% complete vs 21% last week, 18% last year and 15% average. Safrinha corn planting is off to a very fast start at 18% complete vs 11% last week, 4% last year and 11% average.
ï‚· Rain opportunities for southern Brazil, and RGDS in particular, look quite limited over the coming 15-day period. There is a bit better rain outlook into Argentina with much of Buenos Aires and Cordoba having the best shot a meaningful amounts, but La Pampa, Parana, Santa Fe and Corrientes look mostly dry.
ï‚· Turkey provisionally bought 325k tonnes of corn for Feb 25-Mar 15 shipment periods, roughly split 50/50 between ex-warehouse purchases and new import purchases. Prices paid were $304.70-$315.80/tonne for ex-warehouse and $304.70-$311.65/tonne c&f for new imports.
ï‚· Continued weak pork prices in China are prompting the government to begin buying domestic pork supplies for state reserves to support prices. Last year, China implemented a system to trigger purchases/sales for state reserves based on the relationship between pork and corn prices in order to smooth out dramatic price moves in pork values.