-Soycomplex starts week strong following palm oil price gains
-Optimistic rain ideas in Argentine outlook
-USDA report tomorrow – trade estimate summary included
-Strong Brazilian March soybean exports expected
The soybean complex led CBOT grain markets higher overnight, led by soybean oil and soybeans, following significant strength in Malaysian palm oil futures which closed up nearly 4%. USDA will release the monthly WASDE report tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT. Our prereport commentary can be found at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43128 while a summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
Brazilian ag exporter association Anec sees the March export line-up showing a potential for 13.79 MMT of soybeans to the shipped during the month vs 2.9 MMT exported in February and 10.9 MMT exported last year in March. Anec sees March corn exports falling to only 63k tonnes from 821k in Feb and 471k tonnes last year.
Preliminary Chinese trade data for Jan-Feb combined showed 13.407 MMT of soybeans were imported during the 2-month period vs 13.510 MMT last year. China started combining Jan and Feb data last year due to the data distortions created by the Lunar New Year holiday. 2020/21 marketing year to date (Oct-Feb) imports of 39.2 MMT compare to 37.5 MMT last year.
Algeria tendered for an unspecified amount of milling wheat for March-April shipment, with offers due by tomorrow. Pakistan again tendered for 300k tonnes of wheat for Apr-Aug shipment periods after passing on their last tender.
Saudi Arabia bought 660k tonnes of optional-origin barley following its recent tender at an average price of $279.77/tonne c&f, all for April-May delivery. Iran, on the other hand, bought only 40k tonnes of barley after tendering for 400k tonnes.
The USDA is planning to change how they reflect soybean oil used for renewable diesel in the monthly WASDE reports, with the change potentially beginning in May. Currently, the portion of soybean oil for renewable diesel is accounted for in the “food, feed and other industrial” category, while the specific line item in the balance sheet for biodiesel includes only that reflected by the EIA data of SBO as the feedstock for methyl ester biodiesel production. This will not alter total demand numbers in the balance sheet, but will provide more clarity on the data as USDA separates the usage for renewable diesel from the “other industrial” component currently reflected.
Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined for the week ended 3/02/21 showed funds modestly lightening up on, but maintaining decent-sized net longs in corn, soybeans and soybean oil. Specifically, funds were net sellers of 16.8k contracts in soybeans to reduce their net long to 155.6k contracts, net sellers of 12.6k contracts in corn (net long 348.5k) and net sellers of 4.6k contracts in soybean oil (net long 108.1k). Funds were also net sellers in SBM of 4.1k contracts (net long 65.4k) and 1.5k contracts in KCBT wheat (net long 51.7k). Funds were small net buyers in CBOT wheat of 4.9k contracts (net long 31.8k) and 1.9k contracts in MPLS wheat (net long 14.1k).
Dry weather dominated most of the Argentine growing regions over the weekend with the exception of .25-.75” falling in the SW ¾ of Buenos Aries and far northern La Pampa. Rain prospects have improved in the extended outlook, while most of this week is still expected to be mostly dry. A round of rains will impact the SW ½ of Buenos Aries and most of La Pampa by Wednesday night with totals expected to be generally less than .30” while other areas remain dry. The 6-10 day outlook has both models now calling for .45-1”+ with coverage of around 75-85% in the main growing regions.
In Brazil, dry weather dominated most of RGDS and Santa Catarina as well as the northern 1/3 of Minas Gerais over the weekend while 1-2” fell in all other areas with widespread coverage. Dry weather looks to occur across most of RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana, as well as the western 1/3 to ½ of MGDS and Sao Paulo this week, with totals of 1-2” elsewhere. The 6-10 day outlook is mixed, with the GFS indicating fairly quiet weather to occur in RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana with 1-2” elsewhere, while the European sees .75-1.5” with coverage of around 85%. There is a bias to the rains, with the best coverage occurring north of Parana.