-Grains firm to start the week, led by soybeans on further Brazilian crop idea reductions
-Asian markets closed for Lunar New Year holiday
-Russian wheat exports ideas bumped higher – Russian conflict risks seen low
-USDA reports routine soybean sales to China – split old/new crop
-Funds solidly add to corn net long in latest CFTC data
Grains are starting the week on a firm note, led by the soy complex, on continued reductions in Brazilian crop ideas, while Asian markets see various holiday-related closures this week for the Lunar New Year holiday.
 AgRural further lowered their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop to 128.5 MMT from 133.4 MMT estimated on January 6, which was lowered from their early-season view of 144.7 MMT. Their estimate is now solidly below USDA last at 139.0 MMT, CONAB at 140.5 MMT and last year’s USDA estimated 138.0 MMT. AgRural estimates this year’s yield will be the lowest since 2015/16. They estimate the soybean crop is now 10% harvested, while the first corn crop is 14% harvested, with the 2nd corn crop (safrinha) 14% planted vs 2% a year ago.
ï‚· Malaysian palm oil futures settled slightly lower after hitting a new record high earlier in the holiday-shortened trading session today and will be closed until February 3 for the Lunar New Year holiday. Chinese markets will be closed until February 7 for the holiday.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 129k tonnes of soybeans to China this morning, with 66k for old crop and 63k for new crop.
ï‚· Sovecon ticked their estimate of this year’s Russian wheat exports up to 34.3 MMT from 34.1 MMT previously and compares to USDA’s current estimate of 35.0 MMT, with the strong export pace of late and lower value of the rouble contributing to the upward revision. Regarding the ongoing concerns of exports in the region being impacted, Sovecon said, “The risk of problems with shipments from the Black Sea region due to the conflict between Russia and the West/Ukraine seems low to us†reiterating there was no impact to Black Sea exports when Russian annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014.
ï‚· Russian wheat export values were marginally lower over the last week, with 12.5% protein Black Sea supplies down $1/tonne to $325-$330/tonne fob according to IKAR and Sovecon.
 Strategie Grains ticked their early ideas of the new crop 2022/23 EU rapeseed crop up to 18.2 MMT from 18.0 MMT previously and would be up solidly from last year’s 16.95 MMT, with the increase due to planted area being raised to 5.69 million hectares (14.1 mil acres) from 5.61 mil ha (13.9 mil acres) previously and up from last year’s 5.27 mil ha (13.0 mil acres).
ï‚· Malaysian palm oil/product exports in January were estimated at 1.176 MMT, down nearly 26% from 1.581 MMT in December and would be comparable to year ago Jan exports of 1.126 MMT.
ï‚· Egypt ended up buying 420k tonnes of wheat for March shipment periods following the tender late last week, with 180k Ukrainian, 120k Russian and 120k Romanian.
 Friday afternoon’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data, for the week ended 1/25/22, saw funds considerably adding to their net long in corn by 39k contracts, now at 366k and again approaching the record net long of 429k contracts. Funds were also net buyers in soybeans of 15k contracts and are net long 115k (record 254k), buyers of 10.6k soybean oil (net long 69k vs 127k record), 11.5k CBOT wheat (net short 13k) and 4.5k KCBT wheat (net long 41k). Funds were minimal net sellers in soybean meal of 0.4k contracts (net long 64k) and 0.5k MPLS wheat (net long 3k).