-Grains lower on hopeful Ukraine developments – renewed Chinese COVID lockdowns
-Limited Ukraine rail grain exports occurring
-USDA reports soybean sales to China/corn to unknown
-MPOC sees rising 2022 palm oil production
USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report and Prospective Plantings report will be out Thursday at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report
commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/46956. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the last page.
Grain markets were sharply lower overnight, led by wheat, following comments by Ukraine’s president on their willingness to discuss options which could bring an end to Russia’s continued attacks. Energy markets are under notable pressure this morning, with crude oil, RBOB and heating oil all posting 4-5% declines. China announced widespread lockdowns in Shanghai, once again, as COVID cases rise.
ï‚· APK-Inform said the first trainloads of Ukrainian corn were exported to Europe, but quantities are likely to be quite limited due to logistical constraints, with potentially only 1 MMT of total grain exports being seen during March-June. They said Ukrainian corn delivered to Poland and Baltic States was priced at $250-$265/tonne and around $275/tonne to Slovakia.
 Ukraine’s ag minister said new crop sunflower planted area is likely to be only 4.81 million hectares (11.9 mil acres) vs 6.66 mil ha (16.46 mil acres) last year due to Russia’s military actions across the country. With the inability to export corn and sunseed, stocks of those commodities are now very high, prompting a push to increase planted area of minor grains/cereals instead as possible.
 The Malaysian Palm Oil Council sees 2022 crude palm oil production from the country at 18.9 MMT, up modestly from last year’s 18.1 MMT, with Indonesian production at 47.1 MMT vs 45.2 MMT in 2021. They expect palm oil prices to remain historically high through May if the Russian/Ukrainian conflict continues, but see a potential downside correction into the 4,500-5,500 ringgit/tonne range in Q3 2022 vs current benchmark June futures trading near 6,000 ringgit/tonne.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 132k tonnes of soybeans to China for 21/22 delivery this morning, as well as 128k tonnes of corn to unknown, with 77k old crop and 51k new crop.
 China sold 546.0k tonnes of state reserve wheat in their latest auction, 98.4% of the total offered amount, at an average price of 2,844 yuan/tonne ($435.05; $11.84/bu), down from the previous auction’s average price of 2,958 yuan/tonne ($465.03) and the lowest price in four weeks. China also announced they will auction 500k tonnes of imported soybeans from state reserves on April 1.
ï‚· Turkey provisionally bought 300k tonnes of corn following their recent tender, with the lowest price believed to be
$400.87/tonne c&f for April 8-May 5 shipment.
 Friday afternoon, USDA’s Cattle on Feed report showed cattle on feed as of March 1 at 101.4% of last year, a bit above the
average trade estimate of 101.1, with the 12.163 mil head being record high for the period. February placements were reported at 109.3, sharply above average expectations of 106.1 (104.0-109.8 range of ideas) vs 98.8 in January, while Feb marketings were reported at 104.9, above average expectations of 104.2 (103.3-104.6 range) and followed 96.9 in January. The strong placements number was partially influenced by the comparison to a rather weak year ago figure, which saw Feb 2021
placements the lowest in six years.