-Wheat daily price limits expanded to 85 cents regular/135 cents expanded
-Ukraine looking to export grains by rail through eastern European countries
-Bulgaria buying domestic grain supplies/Hungary halts grain exports/Romania sees no export limits for now
-Global wheat tenders continue
-China warns winter wheat conditions may be worst ever
The USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be out next Wednesday, March 9. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the last page. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at ttps://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/46774.
ï‚· The CME expanded regular daily trading limits for CBOT and KCBT wheat to 85 cents, with expanded limits moving to $1.35 when needed.
ï‚· Ukraine has introduced a system requiring export licenses for corn, wheat, sunoil, poultry and eggs, while fully suspending exports of rye, oats, millet, buckwheat, salt, sugar, meat and livestock. State-run railway operator Ukrainian Railways said they are ready to organize grain exports via rail given the inability to export through their own Black Sea and Azov Sea ports. They said they could rail grains to Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland, which could then move to their port locations for export. It was estimated rail could carry 150 carriages of 70 tonnes each daily to Romania, 60 to Slovakia, 45 to Poland and 17 to Hungary.
 APK-Inform warned Ukraine’s spring grain planting is likely to be limited given the war with Russia. While farmers are ready to begin fieldwork as possible, fuel was being diverted for use by the military, while limited access to fertilizer, seeds and other inputs is also problematic.
ï‚· Louis Dreyfus halted all operations in Russia and had already halted Ukrainian operations.
 Bulgaria is looking to buy 1.5 MMT of the roughly 3.0 MMT of wheat still in the country’s silos and may restrict exports in order to ensure domestic supply availability. On Friday, Hungary announced a full ban on all grain exports temporarily.
 AgRural lowered their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop to 122.8 MMT from 128.5 MMT previously, while Safras & Mercado on Friday lowered their estimate to 125.1 MMT from 127.2 MMT previously. USDA’s currently 134.0 MMT estimate clearly is in need of downward adjustment in Wednesday’s WASDE report, with the average trade estimate of 128.1 MMT still above most private estimates out of Brazil, as well. CONAB was last at 125.5 MMT, while last year’s crop was 138.0 MMT.
ï‚· Romania said they see no reason to restrict grain exports for now as there are no risks currently perceived for domestic supply concerns. Romania exports grain through the Black Sea but is not impacted by the Russian war at this time.
 China’s ag minister said it’s possible the current condition of this year’s winter wheat crop is the “worst in history†following last fall’s very difficult planting season in which heavy rains detrimentally impacted about a third of total area and that a late fall crop survey showed the amount of 1st and 2nd grade-rated wheat was down more than 20%. An aggressive focus will remain on ensuring a supply/demand balance of grains through maintenance of state reserves and imports, while they will work to build up the momentum of increased corn production.
 The Rosario Grain Exchange sees the Argentine corn crop being below 48 MMT vs USDA’s last estimate of 54.0 MMT, last year’s 51.5 MMT and the average trade estimate for Wednesday’s WASDE report of 51.6 MMT. They see the soybean crop at 40.5 MMT vs USDA last at 45.0 MMT, last year’s 46.2 MMT and the average trade estimate of 43.1 MMT.
 Preliminary trade data showed China imported 13.94 MMT of soybeans in Jan-Feb combined vs 13.41 MMT last year and marginally setting a new record for the 2-month period in surpassing 2018’s 13.91 MMT. Some ag consultants question imports were that high as commercial shipping data/vessel tracking indicated imports were close to 12.2 MMT, but the discrepancy may be accounted for by non-commercial (container) shipments. China does not provide a breakdown of
Jan and Feb imports in preliminary data due to the Lunar New Year holiday.
 With one month left in the 21/22 marketing year (Apr-Mar), India looks to export a record amount of wheat around 7 MMT, with 6.6 MMT already shipped, exceeding 2012/13’s previous record of 6.5 MMT. USDA is currently estimating this year’s exports at 7.0 MMT.
 Tunisia tendered for 125k tonnes of soft wheat and 100k tonnes of feed barley for March 20-May 20 shipment with offers due by tomorrow. Taiwan tendered for 50k tonnes of U.S. wheat for Apr 23-May 7 shipment, while Algeria tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for May shipment, with offers due by tomorrow. Separately, Algeria’s ag minister said grain reserves are sufficient to last through year end.
ï‚· South Korea passed on their tender for 60k tonnes of soybean meal with the lowest offer of $640/tonne c&f cited as too high.
 China sold all 100% of the 526.3k tonnes of wheat offered at their latest auction of state reserves, with the average price paid of 3,054 yuan/tonne $483/tonne ($13.15/bu) up solidly from the previous week’s 2,753 yuan/tonne ($436/tonne) and easily the highest of this year’s auctions.
ï‚· USDA reported the finding of highly pathogenic bird flu in a commercial broiler flock in Missouri.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 132k tonnes of soybeans to China this morning, 66k old and 66k new crop.