-Another all-time monthly record soybean crush expected in tomorrow’s NOPA report
-Paraguay sees soybean crop half of last year
-No USDA sales announcements
-Asian feedmills actively buying Indian/Australian wheat
A wetter South American outlook in extended guidance and ideas Ukraine may make concessions to Russia led to a weaker, but volatile overnight session for grains.
 NOPA will release their monthly soybean crush report tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT. The average estimate of January soybean crush by NOPA members is 186.7 million bushels (183.7-188.5 million bushels range of ideas), up slightly from December’s all-time monthly record of 186.4 million and slightly above last year’s January record of 184.7 million bushels. Based on the recent-month relationship between NOPA and nationwide crush, the average trade estimate implies ideas
of U.S. total crush for the month at 198.3 million bushels vs 198.2 million in December and 196.5 million bushels last year. The average trade estimate of end January soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 2.062 billion pounds, up slightly from 2.031 billion in December, considerably above last year’s 1.799 billion and would be the highest for the month since 2012.
ï‚· China said the Inner Mongolia region plans to expand soybean area this year by 25% to 1.44 million hectares (3.56 mil acres) from 1.15 mil ha (2.84 mil acres) last year, with the region being the 2nd largest soybean producer in the country, accounting for roughly 14% of total area.
 Safras & Mercado estimates the Brazilian soybean crop is 26% harvested vs 7% at this time last year and 16% average, with Mato Grosso’s harvest 60% complete vs 22% last year and 42% average. Given the fast soybean harvest, AgRural estimates the safrinha corn crop in the Center South region is 42% planted vs 11% last year.
 Paraguay’s ag minister said this year’s soybean crop is expected to be only around 5 MMT vs last year’s 9.9 MMT due to the severe drought conditions experienced during much of the growing season. USDA is currently estimating the crop at 6.3 MMT, with exports estimated to fall to 4.15 MMT from 6.33 MMT last year, but obviously would very likely be lower if Paraguay’s assessment of the crop is accurate.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
ï‚· Indian palm oil imports in January fell notably to 553k tonnes from 781k in December as prices continued to rise, making soybean oil and sunflower oil more attracted. Year ago January imports were 566k tonnes. Soybean oil imports in January jumped to 391k tonnes vs just 89k tonnes last year January, while sunflower oil imports of 308k tonnes were up sharply from 205k tonnes last year. With the continued historically high palm oil prices, India announced they are lowering the AIDC import tax on crude palm oil to 5% from 7.5% currently, while extending the previously-lowered basic customs duty until September 30 from the initially-planned March 31 expiration.
ï‚· Russian wheat export prices declined for the 5th consecutive week last week, with 12.5% protein Black Sea supplies for LH Feb-FH March export falling $1/tonne to $318/tonne fob according to IKAR, while Sovecon reflected a $7/tonne decline for the week to $316/tonne fob. Sovecon said winter weather conditions for the wheat crop remain mostly favorable.
ï‚· The huge Indian and Australian wheat crops this year are continuing to attract considerable buying interest by Asian feedmills, with South Korea reportedly buying 400k tonnes of Indian wheat over the last week, while the Philippines and other Southeast Asian buyers have been aggressive in buying Australian wheat. Indian wheat into Asian destinations is said to be priced around $315/tonne c&f currently, while Australian Standard White wheat is around $335/tonne c&f and Black Sea supplies quoted around $355/tonne c&f.
 China sold 520k tonnes of the 523k tonnes of wheat offered at the latest state reserve auction at an average price of 2590 yuan/tonne ($407.22/tonne ($11.08/bu) vs the previous week’s average selling price of 2630 yuan/tonne and was the lowest average price paid since early January.
ï‚· Midday Friday, newswires reported Russia lifted previously-announced restrictions on shipping activities in the Azov Sea slated for Feb 13-19 as they conduct naval maneuvers