-Another Canadian canola crush plant announced – doubts continue
-Good South American rains remain in forecast
-USDA reports routine soybean sales to China
-Export Sales mostly uninspiring
ï‚· An agronomist with the Rosario grain exchange said the recent and additional expected rains across Argentina have likely halted crop losses with favorable weather patterns now expected for the remainder of the crop cycle. He noted irreversible damage has occurred for some of the crop but should not get worse for the rest of the season, while late-planted crops will obviously benefit from the change in the pattern.
 Plans for another new Canadian canola crush plant (possible 2025 opening) were recently announced, a 1.1 MMT annual capacity plant in Saskatchewan which would be used to produced oil for renewable diesel production. The announcement adds another new plant following four other new plants announced in 2021, adding total new crush capacity of 6.8 MMT/year if all the plants are actually built, reflecting an increase in total capacity of 62% from current levels. Considering all-time record crush has been 10.5 MMT, there clearly are doubts all the planned plants will come to fruition as canola production in the country obviously can’t fulfill the potential needs of the new plant, with record production being 21.5 MMT and annual exports typically 10-11 MMT. Increased demand would likely spur an increase in production, but increasing enough is highly questionable.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 132k tonnes of soybeans to China for old crop 2021/22 shipment this morning. They also reported the late reporting of 248k tonnes of corn to unknown for 21/22, as well.
ï‚· Malaysian palm oil futures were sharply higher again overnight, continuing the advance into all-time record high territory, pulling soybean oil along for the ride.
ï‚· Iran is believed to have bought 195k tonnes of likely Russian/German wheat for Feb-Mar shipment following their recent tender.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/46393 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales were 1.091 MMT (43.0 million bushels), slightly above market expectations of 500k-1.0 MMT, rebounding solidly from the two previous holidayweeks’ sales of 17.9 million and 10.1 million bushels, but were still below last year’s same-week sales of 56.6 million bushels. Over the last four weeks, corn sales averaged 30.0 million bushels/week vs 45.2 million/week during the same period last year.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales last week of 671k tonnes (24.7 mil bu) were at the bottom end of market expectations of 600k-1.2 MMT, comparable to the previous week’s 26.9 million, but significantly below year ago same-week sales of 66.7 million bushels. New sales activity by China reflected sales of only 139k tonnes.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales last week of 381k tonnes (14.0 mil bu) were at the top end of market expectations of 175-400k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 9.7 million, were the highest in three weeks and slightly better than last year’s same-week sales of 12.1 million bushels. Overall, though, they were still far from inspiring.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales last week were a 14-week high and 2nd highest of the marketing year so far at 315k tonnes, coming in at the top end of market expectations of 100-300k tonnes, but still falling below last year’s same-week sales of 469k tonnes which were the 2020/21 marketing year high. Soybean oil sales of 30.7k tonnes were the best in four weeks, above market expectations of 0-15k, but still below last year’s same-week sales of 52.3k tonnes.
ï‚· Very good rains continue in the near-term Argentine forecast, while the extended forecast for southern Brazil is wetter today.