-Trade ideas for Statistics Canada planted area estimate report
-Attache sees continued declining Chinese corn stocks, mixed demand ideas
-Attache see lower Ukraine corn and wheat exports in 2019/20
-Corn belt weather pattern remains active, but farmers to aggressively use opportunities
-No USDA sales announcements
 Statistics Canada will release their first 2019/20 planted acreage estimates on Wednesday. The average trade estimate of all wheat planted area is 24.8 million acres (22.8-25.6 million range of ideas) and would be nearly unchanged from last year’s 24.735 million acres. However, with durum area estimated at 5.2 million acres (4.6-6.0 million range), down sharply from last year’s 6.185 million, the obvious implication is spring wheat area is expected to increase from last year. Canola area is expected to decline to 21.8 million acres (20.1-22.4 million range) from last year’s 22.813 million acres, with oat area estimated to increase to 3.3 million acres (3.1-3.5 million range) from last year’s 3.053 million and barley to increase to 6.9 million acres (6.1-7.5 million range) from last year’s 6.493 million. Soybean area is estimated at 6.4 million acres (6.0-7.3 million range) vs 6.320 mil last year.
 The USDA ag attaché in China issued their first ideas on the 2019/20 grain situation, reflecting expectations for corn production to be nearly unchanged from last year at 255 MMT vs 256 MMT in 2018/19. However, a notable reduction in beginning stocks to 205 MMT from 223 MMT a year earlier would reduce Chinese corn total supplies to 464.5 MMT from 483.5 MMT in 2018/19. In that estimate, the attaché is assuming Chinese corn imports in 2019/20 to be 5.0 MMT, unchanged from 2018/19. For demand, they see continued industrial usage expansion to 90 MMT in 2019/20 from 85.0 MMT this year (USDA officially at 82.0 MMT) and 76.0 MMT in 2017/18. They see corn feed usage, though, declining slightly to 192 MMT from 194 MMT this year, which is moderately below the USDA’s official estimate of 2018/19 feed usage of 198 MMT. The end result shows the attaché looking for 2019/20 Chinese corn ending stocks to decline to 182 MMT from 204.5 MMT estimated this year, which is in line with the USDA official old crop ending stocks estimate of 204.8 MMT, as well.
 The USDA ag attaché in Ukraine sees their 2019/20 wheat crop at 25.3 MMT, up only slightly from last year’s 25.1 MMT and reflects a more modest crop view than some other private ideas for a bit larger of an increase. The attaché sees their wheat exports over the coming marketing year slipping to 15.2 MMT from 16.5 MMT this year and 2019/20 ending stocks near 1 MMT and essentially unchanged from 2018/19. The attaché sees the coming corn crop, on the other hand, declining solidly to 28.4 MMT from 35.8 MMT last year due to a return to more typical yields from last year’s record-shattering yield performance, as planted area is seen mostly unchanged on the year. With the drop in production, the attaché sees Ukraine’s corn exports in 2019/20 falling to 20.7 MMT from 28.0 MMT this year, a nearly 300 million bushel decline. With corn acreage expected to be roughly unchanged, new crop export potential will be highly influenced by yields/production, accordingly.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements today.
 A new Russian grain exporter association has been established, at the behest of the Russian government, in order to better understand the industry’s needs and challenges, as well as to improve the coordination between grain exporters and government authorities, it was said. However, the new association, the Russian Union of Grain Exporters, will be headed by Russian state grain trader UGC, leaving many to view the move as a way for the Russian government to increase their authority over the country’s grain exports. Initial members in the association are said to account for more than one third of Russia’s annual grain exports.
ï‚· Algeria tendered for an unspecified amount of durum wheat for June shipment. Offers are due by tomorrow. Algeria last purchased durum wheat on March 8 of 300k tonnes.
ï‚· Taiwan bought 109k tonnes of U.S. wheat, consisting of HRW, DNS and white, with early 2019/20 shipment periods.
