-Wheat rallies on lower than expected Canadian crop estimate
-Attache ideas on Argentine soybeans differ from USDA official estimates
-USDA reports corn/soybean sales to unknown
-5th swine fever case reported in China
-First notice day deliveries heavy soybeans/SBO, modest corn
-Markets closed Monday for Labor Day holiday
Wheat rallied at 7:30 AM CT on the release of the lower than expected Canadian wheat crop estimate, providing a positive influence for other
grain markets, as well. US ag markets will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.
 Statistics Canada estimate this year’s Canadian wheat crop at 28.987 MMT, well below average market expectations of 30.6 MMT, and even
below the entire range of market ideas of 29.3-32.7 MMT. If accurate, Canada’s wheat crop would be down 1.0 MMT from last year’s 29.984
MMT crop and 2.5 MMT lower than the USDA’s last estimate of 32.5 MMT. Stats Canada estimated the canola crop at 19.162 MMT, also well
below average expectations of 20.2 MMT, as well as the entire range of ideas of 19.3-21.0 MMT and would be down 2.1 MMT from last year’s
21.3 MMT crop. The soybean crop was estimated at 7.01 MMT, in line with expectations, but down from year’s 7.72 MMT, while the oat crop
was estimated at 3.31 MMT vs 3.3 MMT expected and 3.73 MMT last year. The much lower than expected wheat estimate prompted the wheat
market to move solidly higher at the report’s release time of 7:30 AM CT. Canola futures moved higher, as well.
 The USDA ag attaché in Argentina sees the coming year’s soybean crop rebounding strongly to 57.5 MMT, above the USDA’s official estimate of
56.0 MMT as they anticipate planted area to rise to 19.0 million hectares (46.9 million acres) from 18.5 million hectares (45.7 mil acres) last
year, along with an obvious expected rebound in yields following this year’s disastrous situation. The USDA’s official new crop soybean area
estimate of 18.7 million hectares (46.2 mil acres). However, as the attaché sees lower ending stocks for this marketing year at 9.1 MMT vs
USDA’s 11.4 MMT estimate, they look for exports to rebound to 7.3 MMT in the coming year from just 3.0 MMT this year, while the USDA sees
next year’s exports at 8.0 MMT. Additionally, the attaché sees next year’s crush at 43.0 MMT vs USDA at 45.0 MMT, but they see current
marketing year crush at 42.0 MMT, solidly above the USDA’s 40.9 MMT and would actually be up from the previous year’s 41.0 MMT. The
ability to maintain a high crush level this year is being accommodated by the attaché’s allowance of a more aggressive decline in stocks, but
also imports being 4.5 MMT this year vs USDA officially estimating imports at 3.1 MMT. The attaché does not discuss their expectation of the
breakdown of imports by country.
ï‚· USDA reported sales to unknown for 2018/19 delivery of 250k tonnes of soybeans and 274k tonnes of corn. The 2018/19 marketing year or
corn and soybeans officially begins tomorrow.
ï‚· Ukraine has exported a total of 6.0 MMT of grain so far in 2018/19, with 3.2 MMT being wheat (1.9 MMT milling/1.2 MMT feed), 1.4 MMT of
barley and 1.2 MMT corn. The Ukrainian government’s memorandum of understanding with grain traders allows 16 MMT of wheat to be
exported this year, of which 8 MMT can be milling quality.
ï‚· The fifth case of African swine fever was confirmed in China in Anhui province. Each confirmed case has been in a different Chinese province,
highlighting the widespread nature of this outbreak of an extremely contagious and lethal disease for hogs, which has no known cure or
vaccine.
ï‚· First notice day September deliveries saw 511 contracts of soybeans put out, with wire services reporting market expectations were 200-700
contracts, and had a last trade date of 8/27/18. Corn deliveries were modest at 137 contracts, much lower than expectations of 500-1000
contracts, and had a last trade date of 4/02/18. SBO deliveries were heavy at 1313 contracts (500-1500 expected), with a last trade date of
8/27/18, while SBM saw 161 contracts put out (0-200 expected) and were through 7/06/18. However, there were no CBOT wheat deliveries
today (0-500 expected, while KCBT wheat saw 376 contracts put out (0-500 expected) thru 8/01/18 and MPLS wheat saw 384 contracts put
out (0-400 expected and were thru 8/28/18. Ethanol deliveries were 368 (8/300/18), oats 186 contracts (8/30/18) and rough rice 27 contracts
(6/18/18).