-Australian drought seen continuing through wheat growing season
-USDA announces additional Chinese soybean purchases – more expected
-Ukraine winter grain planting behind year ago pace
-Trade estimates for Hogs and Pigs report
-Export Sales mostly uneventful – corn remains disappointing
 An analyst with Shanghai JCI Intelligence said he expects total Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans, prior to the mid-October trade talks, to reach around 6 MMT. With roughly 4.0-4.5 MMT expected to have already been purchased, 1-2 MMT of additional purchases could be seen over the next two weeks or so, he said. This is in line with our contacts looking for 5-6 MMT in total near term purchases, as well. All recent purchases fall under the Chinese government’s recent import tariff waivers for state and privately-owned companies.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 257k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2019/20 delivery this morning.
 The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange sees this year’s Argentine wheat crop at a record 21.0 MMT, slightly above the USDA’s current estimate of 20.5 MMT and up from last year’s 19.5 MMT. In early ideas, they see the coming soybean crop at 51.0 MMT (USDA 53.0 MMT/55.3 MMT last year), with the corn crop estimated at 50.0 MMT (USDA 50.0 MMT/51.0 MMT last year).
 Australia’s weather bureau sees the current drought continuing for at least the next three months across the eastern part of the country having a major detrimental impact on this year’s wheat crop. Accordingly, ABARES recent lowering of this year’s crop to 19.2 MMT from 21.9 MMT previously is clearly at risk of still being too high, as is USDA’s current 19.0 MMT estimate. Last year’s crop was 17.3 MMT.
 Oil World sees India’s soybean production and, accordingly, soybean meal export prospects for the coming year due to excessive monsoon rains over the last month. They see this year’s Indian soybean crop at 9.5 MMT, cited as a 10% decline from last year, but would be a 17% decline using USDA’s 11.5 MMT estimate of last year’s crop. USDA currently pencils the coming crop at 11.0 MMT, but clearly appears too high in light of the recent excessive rains. Oil World sees 2019/20 Indian soybean meal exports declining to 1.5 MMT from 2.1 MMT last year (USDA currently 1.9 MMT new crop/2.35 MMT old crop).
 Ukraine’s winter grain crops are 36% planted, behind last year’s 46% pace at this time, with winter wheat planted on 2.4 million hectares (5.9 mil acres) so far vs 3.1 mil hectares (7.7 mil acres) last year.
ï‚· Malaysia will exempt palm kernel oil from export taxes through June 30 in an attempt to reduce domestic stocks.
ï‚· Tomorrow afternoon, the USDA will release the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report at 2:00 PM CT. The average trade estimate of all hogs and pigs as of Sept 1 is 102.8% of last year (77.268 mil head), with a range of ideas of 101.4-103.6, continuing the pattern of record high quarterly hog numbers for the 5th consecutive year. Kept for breeding is estimated at 101.4 (6.417 mil head), with a range of ideas of 101.0-101.7, while kept for marketing is estimated at 103.0 (70.844 mil head), with a range of 101.4-103.8.
 Egypt bought 300k tonnes of wheat as a result of this week’s tender, with 240k tonnes Russian and 60k tonnes French.
ï‚· Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/37467 for details on the USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales were disappointing at just 494k tonnes (19.4 million bushels), solidly below market expectations of 600k-1.1 MMT, and falling sharply from the previous week’s strong sales of 57.8 million bushels. Corn sales will need to be the 2nd strongest of the last 12 years during Oct-Aug in order for the USDA’s export projection to be reachable.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales of 1.038 MMT (38.1 million bushels) were in line with market expectations of 800k-1.3 MMT, but fell significantly from the previous week’s 63.6 million bushels. Solid sales are expected in the coming weeks with the resumption of Chinese buying, but sales will need to run at an alltime record pace during Oct-Aug just to reach the USDA’s current export projection.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales were just 283k tonnes (10.4 mil bu), in the lower half of market expectations of 200-500k tonnes. After a decent stretch of sales in July-August, wheat sales have slowed considerably with three of the last four weeks’ sales being just 10.4-11.6 million bushels.
ï‚· New crop SBM sales of 121k tonnes were below expectations of 200-400k tonnes, while soybean oil new crop salesof 30k tonnes were above expectations of 5-15k.
Weather A chance for temps in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s is still seen for the Dakotas, western MN and NW IA by the morning of Oct. 3, although the models are not as aggressive as they were yesterday. Above average rains remain forecasted for the NW ½ of the corn belt for the coming 10-day period.