-USDA reports corn sold to unknown
-South American forecast not as wet supporting grains overnight
-Black Sea wheat values tick lower last week
-China wheat auction interest continues to cool
With the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, CME ag markets will have normal trading sessions through Wednesday’s day session, but will be closed starting with the Wednesday night session and be fully closed on Thursday (no day or night sessions). Friday will see a shortened session of 8:30-12:05 CT. The only regular grain-related reports impacted this week will be Export Sales delayed until Friday morning and the CFTC’s COT data delayed until Monday. On the energy front, the EIA’s weekly ethanol/petroleum data will still be released on Wednesday, while the EIA’s weekly natural gas storage data will be pushed up to Wednesday from its usual Thursday release.
ï‚· Black Sea wheat export values ticked lower last week with Russian 12.5% protein supplies down $2/tonne at $252/tonne fob and Ukrainian 12.5% protein supplies down $4/tonne on the week to $249-$254/tonne fob. Ukrainian corn export values ticked higher by $1/tonne last week, though, to $239-$243/tonne fob.
 China imported 1.14 MMT of corn in October vs 1.08 MMT in September and only 90k tonnes in October last year, bringing 2020 calendar yearto-date imports to 7.8 MMT vs 4.0 MMT during Jan-Oct last year. China’s wheat imports in October fell to 630k tonnes from 1.07 MMT in September, but were still well above last year’s 280k tonnes, with 2020 calendar YTD imports of 6.7 MMT comparing to 2.5 MMT last year. Total grain imports (corn, wheat, barley, sorghum) during Jan-Oct of 24.5 MMT compare to 12.5 MMT last year during the same period.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 334k tonnes of corn to unknown this morning.
 Interest in China’s weekly state reserve wheat auctions continues to cool with 708k tonnes of the 4.020 MMT (18%) purchased this week at an average price of 2339 yuan/tonne ($356.84), down from the previous week’s 861k tonnes (22%) bought and the 2.2-2.9 MMT (56%-73%) bought in each of the prior three auctions.
 Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed report as of November 1 was slightly below expectation at 101.3% of last year vs the average trade estimate of 101.8, with October placements of 89.0 also below expectations of 91.1 and October marketings of 99.9 marginally below average expectations of 100.2.
 Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined as of 11/17/20 showed funds modest net sellers in soybeans of 12.3k contracts, reducing their net long to 209k contracts (254k record), net sellers of 18.2k CBOT wheat (net long 14.4k) and net sellers of 1.9k contracts in corn (net long 279k contracts). Funds were also net sellers of 5.3k contracts in SBM (net long 78.5k) and 0.7k contracts in MPLS wheat (net long 6.1k). Funds were net buyers of 6.6k contracts of SBO, raising their net long to 103.8k and approaching the record 126.5k, and were small net buyers in KCBT wheat of 0.6k contracts and are net long 48.0k.
ï‚· Pakistan bought 340k tonnes of wheat following their recent tender for up to 400k tonnes, all at $286.75/tonne c&f for arrival by March 31.
ï‚· Tunisia tendered for 92k tonnes of soft wheat, 75k tonnes of durum and 75k tonnes of barley for Dec 20-Jan 25 shipment, with offers due by tomorrow.
Weather
Rains of .35-1†fell across the northern 1/3 of Mato Grosso into the northern ½ of Minas Gerais and Goias, with dry weather in the rest of the Brazilian growing regions over the weekend. Daily hit and miss activity will bring rains of .75-1.5†totals to the northern ½ of Mato Grosso and most of Goias and Minas Gerais in the next 5 days. RGDS will see similar totals later this week as well, while the rest of Brazil is mainly dry the next 5 days. Rains in the 6-10 day period are expected to be 1-2†for most of RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana, with totals of .50-1†in the western 2/3 of Mato Grosso and generally less than .25†elsewhere. Temps will run average to a bit above in most areas for the next 10 days, with some well above average temps building into MGDS and Sao Paulo for the weekend and early part of next week with upper 90s to some low 100s
in that area specifically. In Argentina, .35-1â€+ was seen across most of La Pampa and Cordoba, with generally less than .25†in Santa Fe and the eastern ½ of Buenos Aries over the weekend. Widespread .50-1†rains are expected for most growing regions Tuesday and Wednesday, with an additional widespread 1-2†in the 6-10 day period as well. Temps will run average to a bit above for the week ahead and then cool some to average to below for the weekend and early next week.