-USDA Oilseeds Crushings report this afternoon
-Brazilian soybean/corn crop ideas ticked higher
-Ukraine wheat prices slip
-USDA reports modest corn sale/no soybeans
-China wheat reserve auction interest jumps
 This afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Oilseed Crushings report, providing data for September, at 2:00 PM CT. The average estimate of U.S. soybean crush in September is 171.3 million bushels (170.9-172.0 million range of ideas) vs 174.7 million in August and 162.3 million bushels last year. The average estimate reflects U.S. total crush 6.1% larger than NOPA-member crush for the month, which is right in line with the average deviation in recent months. The average estimate of end September U.S. soybean oil stocks is 1.826 billion pounds (1.764-1.875 billion range of ideas), which would be down modestly from August stocks of 1.958 billion pounds, but considerably above the USDA’s last estimate of 2019/20 ending stocks (end
September stocks) of 1.740 billion pounds. It will be very interesting to see September soybean oil stocks in this afternoon’s report. The average estimate of 1.826 billion pounds reflects U.S. total stocks 27.4% larger than NOPA-member stocks, which is not far off of the last three months’ difference between NOPA and total stocks of 27.7-31.2%, making the average trade estimate appear within reason and reflecting a negative development relative to the USDA’s current old crop stocks ideas. However, the previous two years’ September U.S. total soybean oil stocks figures reflected a considerable decline in the difference with NOPA stocks than reflected in the several months prior, giving support to the potential for stocks
to be near the USDA’s current estimate and below the average trade estimate. The USDA’s 1.740 billion pound estimate reflects stocks 21.4% larger than NOPA-member stocks. Last year’s September stocks were 23.1% larger than NOPA vs the 29.0-31.2% difference in the several months prior, while September 2018 stocks 29.9% larger than NOPA vs 35.2-36.5% larger in the two months prior.
 Safras & Mercado slightly raised their estimate of this year’s Brazilian soybean crop to 133.5 MMT from 132.2 MMT previously (USDA 133.0 MMT/126.0 MMT last year), as well as the total corn crop to 116.4 MMT from 115.5 MMT previously (USDA 110.0 MMT/102.0 MMT last year).
ï‚· Ukrainian 12.5% protein wheat Black Sea export values fell $6/tonne last week to $249-$253/tonne fob according to APK-Inform following the improvement in rains and quick acceleration of new crop planting.
 Ukraine marketing year-to-date (July-Oct) wheat exports reached 10.6 MMT vs 11.2 MMT last year, leaving 6.9 MMT available for export during NovJune based on the government’s current 17.5 MMT quota allowance. Last year, Ukraine exported 10.0 MMT of wheat during Nov-June.
 The EU Commission sharply lowered their estimate of the 2020/21 EU corn crop to 60.2 MMT from their previous estimate in August of 70.2 MMT, solidly below the USDA’s last estimate of 66.1 MMT. However, the USDA’s estimate has appeared in need of a downward revision for some time given the unfavorable growing conditions this year, with their estimate in the October WASDE only ticking down marginally from 66.3 MMT estimated in September. EU grain trade association Coceral last estimated the EU corn crop at 62.8 MMT in September vs 65.3 MMT last year.
ï‚· The USDA reported the sale of 204k tonnes of corn to unknown this morning.
 Interest in China’s auctions of state wheat reserves has increased significantly in recent weeks given the sharp rise in domestic corn prices. From midJune through late September, the weekly wheat auctions typically only saw sale rates of 5-20% of the total offered amount. In the last two weeks’ auctions, though, those rates jumped to 73% and 68% with 2.9 and 2.7 MMT being purchased, but at least for now, sales prices have not materially increased from those of previous auctions with less interest. The increase in wheat reserve buying is said to be from feed producers as they look to
offset high-priced corn with cheaper wheat supplies.
 China rejected Australia’s request to remove the 80.5% anti-dumping/anti-subsidy duties placed on Australian barley in May, leaving this year’s historically large 10+ MMT barley crop needing to find a home as around 70% of total Australian barley exports typically go to China. Prior to the previous two years’ droughts, Australian barley exports averaged 6.4 MMT/year over the previous five years.
ï‚· November soybean deliveries today were 501 contracts, with CHS putting out a new 220 contracts and ADMIS re-issuing the 219 contracts they stopped on first notice day. The last trade date is up to 10/13/20.
Weather
Rains of .60-1.5â€+ fell across around 85-90% of the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, with dry weather dominating the rest of Brazil over the weekend. A few light showers brought less than .10†to Corrientes and northern sections of Santa Fe/Entre Rios, otherwise things were dry across
the Argentine growing regions over the weekend. The Brazilian forecast show rains over the next five day confined to most of Minas Gerais, the northern ½ of Mato Grosso and Goias with .75-1.5â€, isolated to 1.5â€+ look to occur expected in those locations, while the rest of the Brazilian growing regions are dry. The 6-10 day period shows .35-1†rains with 75% coverage of the Brazilian growing regions. Argentina looks dry for the coming 5-day period. Limited rains are seen in the 6-10 day period, with any are seen limited to the west and north.