-Brazil soybean planting accelerates quickly
-Rising vegoil production/lower prices expected in 2022
-No USDA sales announcements
-Russian wheat prices stabilize
-Funds widespread net sellers in latest CFTC data
Chinese September trade data showed corn imports were 3.53 MMT, comparable to August’s 3.23 MMT and continuing to run sharply above the previous year’s 1.08 MMT in Sept. This put 2020/21 marketing year (Oct-Sep) total imports at 29.5 MMT vs 7.6 MMT last year, with 2021 calendar year-to-date imports at 24.9 MMT vs 6.7 MMT last year. Wheat imports in September fell to a 6-month low of 640k tonnes and were well below last year’s 1.1 MMT, bringing 2021 calendar year-to-date imports to 7.6 MMT vs 6.1 MMT last year. Barley imports in Sept were huge at 1.51 MMT vs 690k tonnes in August and 1.34 MMT last year (8.6 MMT CYTD vs 4.6 MMT last year), while Sept sorghum imports of 650k tonnes were down from 810k in August and comparable to 570k tonnes last year (7.4 MMT CYTD vs 3.5 MMT last year).
There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
AgRural estimates Brazil’s soybean planting is 22% complete, jumping from 10% the previous week, well ahead of last year’s 8% at this time and the 2nd fastest on record for mid-October, behind only 2018/19. They estimate the 1st corn crop is now 45% planted vs 38% last week and 44% last year.
U.S. corn harvest is expected to be around 50-52% complete in this afternoon’s update vs 57% last year and 41% average.
Soybean harvest is expected around 63-65% vs 55% average.
Thomas Mielke, head of Oil World, sees global vegoil prices declining during the first half 2022 amid an expected sizable increase in world production and rising stocks. Specifically, he expects global vegoil production to rise roughly 8 MMT in 2021/22 from this year, with palm oil production rising 3.5-4.0 MMT (up 1.7-2.0 MMT in Indonesia, 1.0-1.2 MMT in Malaysia) putting global palm oil production around 80 MMT. With 2021 winding down, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council sees the country’s calendar year palm oil production at 18.4 MMT vs 19.1 MMT last year, but Indonesian production at 45.5 MMT vs 43.0 MMT last year. The MPOC also expects weakening prices in 2022.
APK-Inform raised their estimate of Ukraine’s wheat crop to 32.0 MMT from 31.2 MMT previously (USDA 33.0 MMT/25.4 MMT last year), with 2021/22 wheat exports estimated at 21.0 MMT (USDA 23.5 MMT/16.9 MMT last year) and corn exports at 30.0 MMT (USDA 31.5 MMT/23.8 MMT last year). They maintained their estimate of 2021/22 Ukraine sunoil exports at 6.75 MMT, which would be up solidly from 5.3 MMT in 20/21.
According to IKAR, Russian wheat export prices finally stabilized, at least temporarily, holding at $310/tonne fob for 12.5%
protein supplies at Black Sea ports last week after posting higher prices for 13 consecutive weeks.
Ethiopia tendered for 400k tonnes of milling wheat, with offers due by Nov 30. Pakistan tendered for 90k tonnes of wheat, with offers due by Oct 25.
Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for the week ended 10/21/21 showed funds widespread net sellers in grains/oilseeds,
including 22.7k contracts in corn to reduce their net long to 228k contracts, 20.4k soybeans (net long only 29k contracts), 13.8k CBOT wheat (net short 8.5k), 8.3k SBM (net short 40k), 2.2k SBO (net long 73k) and 1.7k KCBT wheat (net long 48k). Funds were small net buyers in MPLS wheat of 0.6k contracts and are net long 16k contracts.