-Brazil could see record wheat crop
-USDA reports modest soybean sale to unknown
-US weather remains favorable
-Russian wheat crop ideas raised
-SBO for biodiesel usage in May record high
-USDA Oilseeds/Grain Crushings reports this afternoon
 Private consultants see the possibility/likelihood of Brazil’s wheat crop this year being a new all-time record around 7.3 MMT, solidly above CONAB’s last estimate of 6.31 MMT and up sharply from last year’s 5.15 MMT. The current record wheat crop was 6.7 MMT in 2016. Brazil’s annual wheat imports are obviously related to their crop size, so reduced imports are quite possible for the coming year. USDA is currently estimating their crop at only 5.7 MMT with imports essentially unchanged from last year at 7.1 MMT. Their wheat harvest is most active during Oct-Nov.
 U.S. corn and soybean crop conditions are expected to show minor improvements in this afternoon’s Crop Progress update.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 260k tonnes of soybeans to unknown this morning, with 8k tonnes for 2019/20 and 252k for 2020/21 delivery.
 During the session on Friday, the EIA released monthly biodiesel production data for the month of May. While total biodiesel production in May of 147 million gallons was up only marginally from 143 million in April and was below last year’s 154 million gallons, the amount of soybean oil used for biodiesel production in the month soared to 778 million pounds from 672 million in April and was notably above last year’s 659 million pounds, as SBO accounted for 70% of all feedstocks used in the month vs 63% in April and the previous 6-month average of 54%. The 778 mil pounds of SBO used for biodiesel in the month was an all-time record and put 2019/20 marketing year-to-date (Oct-May) usage at 4.826 bil pounds vs 5.261 bil at the same point in time last year. Based on the USDA’s 7.400 bil pound annual estimate, June-Sept usage would need to total 2.574 bil pounds, essentially unchanged from last year’s 2.602 bil, after each of the last four months’ SBO for biodiesel usage was above year ago levels. It appears the USDA’s estimate likely will need to move higher, but could very well be largely offset by a reduction in non-biodiesel domestic usage. Likely due to COVIDrelated reduced demand, non-biodiesel domestic usage of SBO in May was down 16% from last year and followed April’s 21% decline, with the two months alone accounting for 468 mil pounds in reduced non-biodiesel domestic usage from last year.
 IKAR raised their estimate of Russia’s wheat crop to 79.5 MMT from 78.0 MMT previously, with most private estimates solidly above Russia’s last official estimate of the crop at 75.0 MMT and USDA’s 76.5 MMT (73.6 MMT last year USDA).
 Sovecon raised their estimate of Russia’s wheat exports in July to 3.2 MMT from 2.9 MMT previously and would be above last year’s 2.975 MMT.
 Russian milling wheat prices declined $3/tonne last week according to IKAR, with 12.5% protein Black Sea export values seen at $207/tonne fob. Comparable Ukrainian milling wheat was unchanged last week at $209-$212/tonne fob. However, IKAR said Ukraine’s wheat crop this year may only be around 40% milling quality vs last year’s crop which some say was as much as 70% milling quality and roughly 55% in 2018.
 Strategie Grains bumped their estimate of the EU rapeseed crop up to 16.79 MMT from 16.54 MMT previously, but still remains below last year’s 17.12 MMT. The EU sunseed crop is now seen at 9.91 MMT vs 9.70 MMT previously and 9.42 MMT last year.
 Argentina’s government pulled out of their plan to take over financially-troubled crushing giant Vicentin after a court ruling limited the government’s powers in their planned course of action.
 This afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Oilseed Crushings report, providing June data. The average estimate of June U.S. soybean crush is 177.8 million bushels (171.7-186.0 million range of ideas), which would be sharply above last year’s 157.6 mil bu and easily reflect a record for the month in surpassing 2018’s 169.6 million. The average estimate of end June U.S. soybean oil stocks is 2.336 billion pounds (2.297-2.351 bil range of ideas) vs 2.447 bil pounds in May and 2.014 billion last year.
ï‚· August soybean oil deliveries were 210 contracts (412 on first notice day Friday), with the last trade date up to 7/27/20. SBM deliveries of 24 contracts recirculated from Friday, while there were no soybean deliveries again.
Weather
Rains of .50-1â€, isolated to 1â€+, fell across all areas south of a line from Quincy IL to Chicago to Alpena MI, with .25-.75†seen for roughly 75% of MN and the NW ½ of IA. Additional totals of .20-.60†and coverage around 65-75% are expected for areas east of the MS River today. The next rains get are expected Thur-Fri with totals of .40-1â€, isolated to 1â€+ expected to fall in around 75-85% of MN, IA and NE MO, as well as the SE ½ of IL. Additional rains are expected in the 6-10 day period, with overall ideas of .50-1â€, isolated to 1â€+ to fall in most of the corn belt, but the GFS does exclude much of MN and
the western ½ of IA from those amounts and indicates .20-.60†to fall, while the European sees only far southern IL/IN getting less than .50â€. As has been the case much of the summer, models are mixed on the 11-16 day period as the GFS sees a fairly west to east flow to transition into a NW flow aloft by the end of the period. This setup would bring average to a bit below average rainfall to the Midwest, with temps to run average early and a bit below late, while the European jumps back to strong ridging to bring hot and dry weather to all of the Midwest. The GFS continues to be the much-favored idea as the
European’s repeated calls for ridging have proven incorrect.