-Eastern belt cold snap damage thought to be limited
-Brazilian safrinha corn crop ideas lowered, soybeans ticked higher
-USDA report tomorrow – trade estimate summary included
-China considering anti-dumping tariffs on Australian barley
USDA’s monthly WASDE report and Crop Production report will be out tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/40024. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page. Weekend lows in the mid-to-upper 20s were seen in much of the eastern corn belt, encompassing essentially all of IN and OH, along with the northern half of IL. Upper 20s were seen as far south as northern KY. There likely was a bit of a hit to SRW, although nothing severe is expected at this time, but as always, it will take a few days to get a better assessment. Most feel there was little to no impact on corn, and minimal impact for soybeans.
 Brazilian ag consultant Safras & Mercado slightly raised their estimate of the country’s soybean crop to 124.6 MMT from 124.2 MMT previously, which is right in line with the USDA’s 124.5 MMT estimate, but above CONAB’s 122.1 MMT. Last year’s crop was 117.0 MMT according to USDA (115.0 MMT CONAB). Safras lowered their estimate of the safrinha corn crop solidly to 69.5 MMT from 73.8 MMT previously and compares to CONAB’s 75.4 MMT latest estimate and last year’s 73.2 MMT, while the put the total corn crop at 101.5 MMT, down from 105.7 MMT previously, and compares to CONAB last at 101.9 MMT, USDA at 101.0 MMT and last year’s 101.0 MMT (USDA)/100.0 MMT CONAB.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
 The FAO estimates Tunisia will need to import roughly 3.8 MMT of grains in 2020/21, up from around 3.2 MMT in 2019/20 as a result of poor production this year. Tunisia’s grain imports consist mostly of soft wheat and barley.
 After an 18-month investigation, China reportedly is considering imposing an anti-dumping tariff on Australian barley of up to 73.6% and an anti-subsidy tariff of 6.9%. A decision is expected to be made by May 19. More than half of Australia’s total barley exports typically go to China. If it is imposed, Australian barley exports would effectively be halted, opening the door to other suppliers. The U.S. may be able to see some sales, but the U.S. has exported very little barley to China historically, with the last “meaningful†exports all the way back in 2000/01 of 57k tonnes. China is estimated to import 6.5 MMT of barley in 2019/20 vs 5.2 MMT in 2018/19.
ï‚· SovEcon estimated April Russian wheat exports were 3.065 MMT, a bit lower than their previous expectations of 3.2 MMT and little changed from March exports of 3.112 MMT. Year ago April exports were 1.917 MMT. 2019/20 marketing year to date (Jul-Apr) exports of 30.9 MMT compare to 33.2 MMT last year.
ï‚· Algeria tendered for an unspecified amount of milling wheat with June-Aug shipment periods depending on supplier. Offers are due by tomorrow. Algeria passed on their last tender for wheat in early April, with their last purchase being 250k tonnes in late March at around $245/tonne c&f.
Weather
Rains of generally less than .20-.65†fell across most of MN, IA, WI and MI, as well as into IL, IN and OH. Totals of .30-1†fell across the OH River Valley. The next round of rains is expected Wed-Thur with .50-1†expected for most areas south of a line from around Omaha to Green Bay, with totals to the north of the line mainly under .35â€. Another round of rains looks to bring totals of .35-.85â€, with some isolated heavier amounts, to most areas south of that line from Omaha to Green Bay later Friday into Saturday. Little in the way of rains are seen elsewhere. Some showers and thunderstorms look to linger across the southern ½ of IL into most of IN and OH Sunday, with totals of .25-.75†most common. Conditions look mostly quiet for the first half of next week. Temps will run below average for this week and then warm to average to even a bit above by the weekend and early next week. Below freezing temps will be occur in most of MN, WI and MI, as well as far NW IA, far northern IL and the northern 2/3 of OH tomorrow morning and then into most of MN and northern OH Wednesday morning. The rest of the next 10 days look to be freeze free.