-Record soybean crush expected in today’s USDA report, SBO stocks worth watching
-Argentina likely to only raise soybean export taxes
-Russia Feb wheat export ideas raised
-New Malaysian PM brings hopes of palm oil trade resumption with India
-Ukraine wheat/corn crop ideas continue modestly lower year-over-year
 This afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Oilseeds Crushings report with data for January. The average estimate of U.S.-wide soybean crush is 187.3 million bushels (186.9-187.9 mil range of ideas), up from 184.7 million in December and would be an all-time record regardless of month. Year ago January crush was 183.1 million. The average estimate reflects U.S. total crush 5.9% above NOPA-member crush, in line with the relationship in recent months. The average estimate of end January U.S. soybean oil stocks is 2.365 billion pounds (2.274-2.500 billion range of ideas), up sharply from December’s 2.094 billion and follows the large jump in NOPA stocks in January to 2.013 bil pounds from 1.757 bil in Dec. The average estimate of Jan SBO stocks reflects a 271 mil pound increase from Dec, while NOPA stocks were up 256 mil pounds. Moreover, the average estimate reflects total U.S. stocks 17.5% above NOPA member stocks, below the 19.2% difference in December and considerably below the average in all of 2019 of 27.7%. In fact, the estimated percentage difference between U.S. total stocks and NOPA stocks is the lowest since USDA resumed the monthly Oilseed Crushings reports in May 2015 so there appears to be risk of soybean oil stocks proving higher than expected in this afternoon’s update.
ï‚· While not yet officially confirmed, it appears Argentina is likely to raise export taxes only on soybeans, with the 3% increase discussed last week to 33% anticipated. However, latest ideas are no other changes will be made, with export taxes on soybean meal, oil, corn and wheat all not impacted.
 With February complete, the average new crop futures price calculations for revenue protection insurance programs for this year’s crop put corn at $3.88/bu vs last year’s $4.00, soybeans at $9.17 vs $9.54 last year and spring wheat at $5.77 vs $5.98 last year. The soybean/corn ratio of 2.36 is down from last year’s 2.39, indicating a slight tilt to corn vs soybeans, and is the lowest since 2016, but is right in line with the most-recent 10-year average of SX/CZ during the Feb 1-March 15 period of 2.37. While there is a bit of a bias for corn acres vs soybeans in terms of the bean/corn price ratio relative to recent years, it certainly is not pronounced and is non-existent in long-term comparisons.
 Brazilian soybean harvest continues to keep pace with the 5-year average, but behind last year’s historically fast pace.
ï‚· SovEcon raised their estimate of Russian wheat export in February to 1.9 MMT from 1.6 MMT previously expected and compares to 1.918 MMT exported in January and 2.244 MMT last year Feb. Estimated July-Feb marketing year to date Russian wheat exports of 24.9 MMT compare to 29.4 MMT last year.
 Ukraine’s grain traders union, UGA, sees this year’s wheat crop declining to 25.8 MMT from 28.2 MMT last year, with corn production declining modestly to 34.3 MMT from 35.2 MMT last year. These ideas are mostly in line with other private estimates looking for a pullback in area following last year’s historically large crops.
 Strategie Grains slightly lowered their estimate of the 2020/21 EU rapeseed crop to 17.85 MMT from 18.05 MMT previously, but still reflects a modest increase from last year’s 16.89 MMT. EU sunseed production is seen at 9.74 MMT (9.70 MMT previously) vs last year’s 9.39 MMT.
ï‚· Malaysia swore in a new Prime Minister on Sunday following the resignation of the outspoken previous PM Mahathir Mohamad, whose public opposition to various Indian policies prompted the effective ban on importing Malaysian palm oil. Both sides are hopeful the change in PM will improve relations and allow palm oil trade to return to a more normal situation.
 Malaysia exported 1.076 MMT of palm oil/products in February, down from 1.220 MMT in January and below last year’s Feb exports of 1.232 MMT.
 Friday’s CFTC COT data for the week ended 2/25/20 (Tuesday) showed funds widespread heavy sellers (no surprise) with net selling in corn on the week of 34.0k contracts (net short 95.5k), 22.7k CBOT wheat (net long 42.0k), 16.6k SBO (net long 23.0k), 4.6k SBM (record net short 77.1k), 6.1k KCBT wheat (net long 8.3k), and 2.4k MPLS wheat (net short 14.3k). Funds were net buyers of 14.6k contracts in soybeans last week and are net short 75.1k. a
 There were no March corn, soybean or CBOT wheat deliveries again today. Soybean meal deliveries dropped to 674 contracts from Friday’s first notice day issues of 1,237 contracts, with the last trade date holding at 2/28/20. Soybean oil deliveries of 653 contracts were down from FND issues of 1,107 contracts and the last trade date at 2/27/20. KCBT wheat deliveries of 9 contracts recirculated and are now through 2/20/20. MPLS wheat deliveries were 186 contracts, down from FND deliveries of 436, but 123 were new issues and are through 2/25/20.
Weather A dry week ahead remains forecast for Argentina, with rains of .40-1†for most areas expected the first half of next week, favoring northern areas. Brazil saw rains of .50-1.5â€+ across Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais and northern Sao Paulo over the weekend. The coming five days shows rains in the northern ½ of Mato Grosso, most of Goias, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo and the northeast ½ to 2/3 of Parana in the 1-2†range, with conditions dry elsewhere. Rains look to remain confined to the same general areas into the 6-10 day period, as well, with totals of .50-1.5†indicated.