-Oilseeds Crushings report expected to confirm another record month
-Australia sees solid pullback in 21/22 wheat crop
-Argentina dry for next 10 days
-KCBT wheat deliveries jump
Soybeans are leading the way higher this morning following overnight strength in Chinese markets and continued concerns over harvest delays in Brazil and dryness concerns in Argentina. Corn and wheat were much less enthused in overnight action.
 This afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Oilseeds Crushings report, providing data for January. The average estimate of January U.S. soybean crush is 195.6 million bushels (195.0-196.1 million range of ideas) vs 193.8 million in December and 188.8 million bushels last year. The average estimate reflects nationwide crush 5.9% larger than NOPA-member crush, exactly in line with the recent-months average deviation. Based the average estimate, marketing year to date crush (Sept-Jan) of 948 million bushels would be up 5.6% from last year’s 598 million, leaving Feb-Aug crush needing to total 1.252 billion bushels based on the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel annual estimate, a 1.2% decline from last year’s 1.267 billion. The average
estimate of end January U.S. soybean oil stocks is 2.315 billion pounds (2.278-2.350 billion range), up from 2.219 billion in December, but slightly below last year’s 2.352 billion pounds. The average estimate reflects nationwide stocks 28.7% above NOPA-member stocks vs the most-recent three months’ deviations ranging from 30.6% to 35.9%.
ï‚· Dalian soybean futures hit an all-time high overnight with most-active May futures touching 6,058 yuan/tonne ($937.23/tonne, $25.51/bu).
 ABARES said they see next year’s 21/22 Australian wheat crop likely pulling back notably from this year’s record 33.3 MMT, preliminarily looking for a crop around 25 MMT, down 25%, on a combined reduction in expected area and yields. However, that would still be notably above the three consecutive years of poor crops from 2017/18-2019/20 which averaged 17.9 MMT and slightly better than the 10-year average, prior to this year’s massive crop, of 23.7 MMT.
 Russian official final data for 2020/21 put the wheat crop at 85.9 MMT, slightly above the USDA’s 85.3 MMT estimate, but Russian data includes the Crimean Peninsula which is typically around 1 MMT, while USDA still includes it for Ukraine. On an apples-to-apples comparison basis, the Russia’s crop as USDA reflects it would be around 84.9 MMT. Russia reflected last year’s wheat crop as 74.5 MMT vs USDA’s 73.6 MMT estimate.
 Russian 12.5% protein wheat for Black Sea export values rose last week by around $5/tonne to $287/tonne fob according to IKAR. Russia’s elevated 50 euro/tonne (~$60) wheat export tax went into effect today. Comparable Ukrainian wheat supplies saw prices rise $5/tonne last week to $283-$288/ tonne fob according to APK-Inform. Some winterkill concerns were expressed following a mid-February cold snap with widespread temperatures below -10 degrees F but snow cover was deemed adequate in most areas. Ukrainian corn export values rose $2/tonne last week to $256-$263/tonne fob.
 The EIA reported December U.S. biodiesel production was 159 million gallons vs 151 million in November and 133 million gallons last year December, putting 2020 calendar year total production at 1.818 billion gallons vs 1.725 billion in 2019. EIA reported 744 million pounds of soybean oil was used for biodiesel production in December vs 683 million in Nov and 541 million pounds last year Dec as SBO accounted for 63% of all feedstocks used in the month vs 60% in Nov and 53% last year Dec. Through the first three months of the 2020/21 marketing year, 2.150 billion pounds of soybean oil has been used for biodiesel production vs 1.625 billion during the same period last year, up 32%, leaving Jan-Sept total usage needing to run 1% below year ago levels based on the USDA’s 8.300 billion pound annual SBO for biodiesel estimate.
 Friday’s CFTC COT data showed funds net long 361k contracts in corn as of 2/23/21, down 4.6k contracts for the week, net long 172k soybeans (up 11k), net long 113k SBO (up 2.2k), net long 69k SBM (unch), net long 53k KCBT wheat (down 4k), net long 27k CBOT wheat (up 5.6k) and net long 12k MPLS wheat (unch).
 KCBT March wheat deliveries jumped sharply to 1,288 contracts from Friday’s first notice day issues of only 87 contracts, with ADM putting out 1,200 contracts. The last trade date is up to 2/24/21. MPLS delivery remain heavy with 612 contracts (583 new) following Friday’s 652 contracts and are through 2/16/21. There have yet to be any corn, soybean, CBOT wheat or soybean oil deliveries. Soybean meal deliveries of 6 contracts re-circulated.
Weather
Over the weekend in Brazil, areas north of Parana generally saw 1-2†rains, while dry weather dominated the eastern 2/3 of Minas Gerais as well as most areas from Parana south. The coming 5-day period looks mostly dry across Minas Gerais, with rains of around 1†RGDS and totals of 1-3â€+ elsewhere. Rains continue in northern growing areas in the 6-10 day period with 2-4†forecast from Parana north, with totals of .25-.75†elsewhere. Most of Argentina was dry over the weekend with the exception of .25-.75†in far SW Buenos Aries and most of La Pampa. Nearly all Argentine growing areas look to be dry for the coming 10-day period with only a few light showers possible for SW Buenos Aries and most of La Pampa this week.