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-Ukraine raises old crop corn production/export estimates
-Funds continue letting go of corn/soybean longs
-No USDA sales announcements
-Favorable rains in South American forecast
-China wheat reserve auctions remain red hot

 Ukraine raised their estimate of the 2020/21 harvested corn crop to 30.3 MMT from 29.3 MMT previously (USDA 29.5 MMT/35.9 MMT last year), allowing for an upward revision in this year’s estimated exports, as well, to 23.5 MMT from 22.3 MMT previously (USDA 24.0 MMT/28.9 MMT last year). A decision is expected to be made sometime today regarding the request made by feed manufacturers/livestock producers to limit corn exports this year to 22 MMT in order to ensure adequate domestic supply availability and control prices.
 A wire service survey of Brazilian ag industry participants reflected average expectations for this year’s soybean crop at a record 132.2 MMT (128.0-135.6 MMT range of ideas) vs USDA last at 133.0 MMT, CONAB at 133.7 MMT and last year’s 124.8 MMT.
 Interest in China’s weekly state reserve wheat auctions remains red hot, with 4.026 MMT of the 4.031 MMT offered this week being purchased at an average price of 2,455 yuan/tonne ($379/tonne, $10.31/bu), which was down modestly from last week’s 2,504 yuan/tonne ($287/tonne, $10.54/bu) average selling price.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
ï‚· Russian Black Sea 12.5% protein wheat for export saw prices slip by $2/tonne last week to $296/tonne fob according to IKAR.
ï‚· After provisionally agreeing to purchase the full 400k tonnes of wheat being sought in their recent tender, Turkey confirmed
actual purchases of only 95k tonnes, deciding prices were too high for the 305k tonnes rejected. The 95k tonnes purchased were at prices ranging from $301.90-$303.90/tonne c&f.
ï‚· Saudi Arabia bought 660k tonnes of barley at an average price of $277.65/tonne c&f for March/April delivery.
 Friday afternoon’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined for the week ended 1/19/21 showed funds net sellers of 25.2k contracts in corn, 14.6k soybeans, 6.8k SBM and 2.8k SBO, while being minor net buyers in CBOT wheat of 3.6k contracts, 3.0k KCBT wheat and 1.5k MPLS wheat. The fund net long in corn stood at 349.5k contracts at the time (429.2k
record) and 151.9k in soybeans (253.9k record). While not proven to be all that accurate, wire service estimates of net daily fund activity of late put net selling in corn since the CFTC “as of†date at 46.5k contracts (42.5 on Friday alone), 43k in soybeans (35k Friday), 30.5k CBOT wheat (20k Friday), 37k SBM (12k Friday) and 10k SBO (all Friday).
Weather
Brazil saw weekend rains of .50-1.25â€+ for most growing areas, with the exception of Minas Gerais, the northern ½ of Sao Paulo and eastern ½ of Goias which were dry. Over the next five days, 2-4â€+ is expected across RGDS and Santa Catarina, with 1-2â€+ expected for all other areas, with the exception again being Minas Gerais, which looks to remain mostly dry. The rains in Santa Catarina and RGDS may lead to some flooding as heavy rains have already fallen in these areas in the past 7 days. Rains continue in the 6-10 day period with 1-3â€+ expected in RGDS and Santa Catarina and 1-2†in most other areas.
Argentina was dry over the weekend as expected. The week ahead shows dryness continuing across the southern 2/3 of Buenos Aries and La Pampa, while all other areas see .60-1.5†rains. The 6-10 day period shows widespread, essentially full coverage, of all growing areas of 1-2†amounts.

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