-Argentina to “limit” corn/wheat exports
-Russia bumps wheat export allowance lower from previous ideas, but still higher than year ago
-Brazil weather remains mostly favorable/more Argentine rains desired
-India to ban most ag futures trading for 1 year
-US markets closed Friday
U.S. markets will be closed on Friday, December 24 for Christmas. USDA and EIA report releases will not be impacted this week. The only report release change will be the CFTC’s COT data, which will be released on Thursday afternoon instead of Friday. USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed and quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports will be out Thursday afternoon. Due to travel schedules, there will not be a CBOT Morning Newsletter Tuesday-Thursday, December 21-23, while our fundamental-related posts on Market Insights will be limited to our usual set of charts/tables for the various USDA/EIA posts.
 Argentina said they will “limit†corn exports to 41.6 MMT for the new crop marketing year in order to ensure adequate domestic supply availability. In effect, though, this is not a restriction by any means as record exports on a local marketing year basis (Mar-Feb) are currently 37.2 MMT in 2019/20, while last year’s were 28.4 MMT and current marketing year-to-date (Feb-Oct) exports have been 30.5 MMT. Total export registrations for the current marketing year are said to be around 39.8 MMT. USDA is currently estimating new crop exports to be 39.0 MMT. New crop wheat exports will be limited to 12.5 MMT, with USDA currently estimating 13.5 MMT vs old crop exports of 11.4 MMT.
 Chinese trade data showed corn imports in November were 790k tonnes, down solidly from the 1.3 MMT imported in October and also well below year ago Nov imports of 1.23 MMT, bringing 2021 calendar year-to-date imports to 27.0 MMT vs 8.8 MMT imported during the first 11 months of 2020. Moreover, the 790k tonnes imported in Nov was an 18-month. Total grain imports in November (corn, wheat, sorghum, barley) of 3.6 MMT were down a bit from 3.93 MMT in Oct and comparable to last year’s 3.4 MMT.
 Russian wheat export values slipped over the last week with 12.5% protein Black Sea supplies down $3-$5/tonne according to Sovecon and IKAR at $329-$335/tonne fob. It appears Russia will officially set the Feb 15-June 30 wheat export quota at 8 MMT, a bit less than the originally-discussed 9 MMT ideas, with the total grain export quota likely to be 11 MMT for the period. This still would reflect a higher wheat export level than last year, which was around 7 MMT during the same period, while the 3 MMT allowance of combined corn/barley exports for the period would be a bit below last year’s roughly 4.2 MMT exported during the period. Russia will also initiate a higher tax structure in the event wheat prices move above $375/tonne.
 India issued a 1-year ban on futures trade in key agricultural markets traded on the country’s National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), not allowing the launch of new contracts or adding positions to existing contracts during the period, in at attempt to tame historically high domestic prices as speculative trading is viewed as an influence. The ban includes soybeans, soybean oil, crude palm oil, rapeseed and wheat futures among others.
ï‚· Most of Brazil continues to see favorable precip levels with the exception of far southern areas (RGDS), while the Argentine forecast is drier than desired.