-Good South American weekend rains
-NOPA crush report tomorrow – another record expected
-Russia sets grain export quota/tax levels
-Brazil’s temporary tax-free ethanol import grace period expires
-No USDA sales announcements
NOPA will release their monthly soybean crush data tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT. The average trade estimate of November soybean crush by NOPA members is 180.0 million bushels (172.0-192.0 million range of ideas), again sharply surpassing last year’s 164.9 million bushels, as well as the current Nov record of 167.0 million bushels in 2018. October NOPA crush was 185.2 million bushels. The average estimate of end November soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 1.548 billion pounds (1.401-1.550 billion range of ideas), which would be up from 1.487 billion in October, solidly above last year’s Nov stocks of 1.448 billion and would be the highest Nov SBO stocks in eight years.
 Russia is moving forward with establishing a wheat export quota, as well as an export tax, to be in place from February 15-June 30. Specifically, a total of 17.5 MMT of grain (wheat, barley, corn) will be allowed to export during the period, with the vast majority, obviously, to be wheat. This would reflect a solid increase from last year’s 14.5 MMT in grain exports during Feb-June, of which wheat accounted for 10.6 MMT. The export tax will be set at a flat 25 euros/tonne (~$30.00) during the period for any exports that occur within the quota limit. Should any exports occur in excess of the quota, the export tax would jump to 50%, and not to be less than 100 euros/tonne. Sovecon said they see these moves to potentially reducing Russian wheat exports by 2-3 MMT from what would have otherwise likely occurred, resulting in an expected 37.8-38.8 MMT in exports for 2020/21. This still reflects a solid increase from last year’s 33.8 MMT, would be the highest in three years and 2nd highest on record.
 Russian wheat export values held steady to slightly increased last week for 12.5% protein supplies at Black Sea ports at $252-$257/tonne fob according to IKAR and Sovecon, while domestic prices declined by around $3/tonne on the government’s moves to establish an export quota and tax. Ukrainian wheat export values were also mostly steady last week at $252-$256/tonne fob. Corn export values were said to be down around $4/tonne at $226-$230/tonne fob.
ï‚· The 90-day grace period on allowing tariff-free U.S. ethanol imports into Brazil expired today, with little to no progress being made on negotiations between the two sides regarding ethanol and sugar trade. Accordingly, all U.S. ethanol exports to Brazil will again be subject to the 20% tariff effective immediately. The previous long-standing trade deal allowing for 750 million liters (198 mil gallons) in tariff-free ethanol imports annually expired in September.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
ï‚· AgRural estimates the Brazilian soybean crop is 95% planted vs 90% last week and 96% last year.
 Friday afternoon’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for the week ended 12/08/20, showed funds net sellers across the ag complex, led by net selling of 15.7k contracts in SBO, reducing their net long to 89.1k, followed by 9.0k in soybeans (net long 185.7k) and 7.7k SBM (net long 62.6k). Funds were small net sellers in corn of 1.1k (net long 269.6k), CBOT wheat 1.3k (net short 5.7k) and 2.2k MPLS wheat (net long 2.5k). The only exception was minor net buying in KCBT wheat of 0.3k contracts, with funds net long 44.8k contracts.
Weather
Brazil saw widespread rains over the weekend of .50-1â€+ fell in all areas, with the exception of the western ½ of MGDS. A favorable precip outlook is in place through the 10-day period, with this week expected to see 1-2â€+ across most of RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana, Sao Paulo as well as the southern ½ of MGDS, while .25-.75†amounts and coverage of around 65-70% are expected elsewhere over the next 5 days. The 6-10 day period shows widespread rains of .75-1.5â€+ for most of the Brazilian growing regions. Good rains were also seen in Argentina over the weekend with 85% coverage of .40-1†amounts. Only the far western growing regions missed out. Mostly dry conditions are expected through Thursday with only .40-1†expected in Corrientes. However, widespread and solid rains are expected over the coming weekend as a front is indicated to work through late Friday into Saturday producing rains of .75-1.5â€+, with coverage of around 90-95%. Dry conditions then return for the 6-10 day period.