-Good Brazilian rains weigh on grains
-Chinese Nov soybean imports record high
-Brazilian farmer soybean sales well ahead of average
-USDA report Thursday – trade estimate summary included
Good weekend rains in Brazil and the lack of new export business is weighing on the grain markets to start the week. Argentine markets are closed today and tomorrow for a local holiday. USDA will release the monthly WASDE report on Thursday. Our prereport commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/42291. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
ï‚· Preliminary November Chinese trade data showed they imported 9.59 MMT of soybeans in the month, a new record for the
month in exceeding 2017’s 8.68 MMT and up from 8.69 MMT in October and last year’s Nov imports of 8.28 MMT. This put 2020 calendar year to date imports at 92.8 MMT vs 79.0 MMT last year. Through the first two months of the 2020/21 marketing year, imports of 18.3 MMT compare to 14.5 MMT last year. China imported 815k tonnes of vegoils in November vs 885k tonnes in October and 1.059 MMT last year, with 2020 calendar year to date imports of 8.59 MMT essentially unchanged from 8.63 MMT last year.
 A wire service survey of Brazilian ag market participants put average expectations for this year’s soybean crop at 131.8 MMT vs last year’s 124.8 MMT (USDA 126.0 MMT). The USDA’s last estimate was 133.0 MMT, while the average trade estimate for
Thursday’s USDA update is 131.9 MMT. CONAB last estimated the crop at 135.0 MMT.
 Safras & Mercado estimates Brazilian farmers have sold nearly 57% of this year’s expected soybean crop, amounting to roughly 75.4 MMT already being sold, vs 38% of the crop sold by this time last year and average of roughly 35%. Last year’s crop is essentially completely sold with only a minor 1.4 MMT estimated to still be available from farmers.
ï‚· Russian 12.5% protein Black Sea wheat export values ticked lowered last week by $2/tonne to $252/tonne fob for Dec shipment according to IKAR. Sovecon put current prices around $255/tonne fob.
 Strategie Grains sees a modest recovery in EU rapeseed production in 2021/22 to 18.2 MMT from this year’s 17.2 MMT, as
planted area remained mostly unchanged for the new crop, but a bit of an increase in yields in expected. This would still be well below the crop two years ago, though, of 20.3 MMT as dryness during the fall planting period prevented an expansion in area even though prices warranted one.
ï‚· South Korea bought 69k tonnes of U.S. corn off the PNW for May shipment at $236.73/tonne c&f. Another South Korean feed mill tendered for 65k tonnes for Feb-March shipment, with offers due by Wednesday.
Weather
Over the weekend, widespread .50-1.5â€+ rains were seen in essentially all Brazilian growing areas (95% coverage) with the
exception of RGDS where only spotty rains of less than .25†were seen. A good week to 10 days of rains lie ahead for most areas with 2-4†expected across most of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais in the next 5 days, with totals of .50-1â€+ in most of MGDS and Sao Paulo. Activity from Parana south looks to be more limited, though, at generally under .35â€. Essentially all areas are expected to see 1-2†in the 6-10 day period. In Argentina, weekend activity included .30-.85†in Cordoba, with generally less than .25†in the southern ½ of Santa Fe and Entre Rio, while other areas were dry. Dry weather is expected across most areas over the next five days, but a few spotty showers are possible of less than .25†and coverage of around 45%. A decent event remains in the forecast for the 6-10 day period with .50-1†(locally 1â€+) expected for the northern ½ of Santa Fe, Entre Rios and most of Corrientes, with totals in the rest of their growing regions generally under .30â€.