-USDA reports tomorrow – trade estimate summary included
-China Oct soybean imports 19-month low
-Ukraine winter wheat area likely to be lower than previously expected
-Funds huge buyers in corn in latest CFTC data
USDA’s monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports will be out tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT. A summary of the average trade
estimates is on the last page. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at
https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/45693. Due to Thursday’s Veterans Day holiday, this week’s Export Sales
report will be released on Friday. Markets will have a regular session on Thursday.
ï‚· Preliminary trade data showed China imported 5.11 MMT of soybeans in October, down from 6.88 MMT in Sept, significantly
below last year’s Oct imports of 8.69 MMT and were a 19-month low going back to March 2020. Specifically for the month of
October, soybean imports were the lowest since 2014 with the impacts from Hurricane Ida clearly being a significant contributor to the historically low imports for the month. 2021 calendar year-to-date imports of 79.1 MMT compare to 83.2 MMT last year.
ï‚· AgRural estimates the Brazilian soybean crop is 67% planted, seeing another strong week in rising from 52% a week earlier and compares to 56% planted a year ago. The first corn crop is estimated to be 75% planted vs 63% last week and 68% last year.
ï‚· Russian wheat prices ticked higher again last week with 12.5% protein Black Sea export values up $2/tonne to $326-$327/tonne fob according to IKAR and Sovecon. Despite the ongoing ascent, Russian wheat continues to win the majority of Egyptian tenders.
ï‚· Ukrainian winter wheat planting continues to run on the slow side, leading to the likelihood new crop area will be lower than
previously expected. Ukraine previously said they expect winter wheat area to rise nearly 10% for the 2022/23 crop to 6.66
million hectares (16.5 mil acres) from last year’s 6.11 mil ha (15.1 mil acres), but as of November 4, only 6.09 mil ha (15.0 mil
acres) had been planted with the planting window closing quickly. Dry conditions in some areas, as well as high input prices,
limited planting activity.
 A wire service poll of South American ag industry participants found the average expectation for this year’s Brazilian soybean crop at 143.9 MMT (140.8-145.8 MMT range of ideas), up from last year’s 137.3 MMT and a new record. Soybean area this year is estimated to be up 3.7% from last year. USDA is currently estimating the crop at 144.0 MMT.
ï‚· Bulgaria reported its second African swine fever outbreak at an industrial hog operation this year, while five outbreaks at
backyard farms have been reported in 2021 so far.
ï‚· USDA reported 150k tonnes of corn was sold to Colombia for 2021/22 delivery this morning.
 Friday afternoon, USDA released their 10-year baseline balance sheet projections with 2022/23 U.S. corn ending stocks penciled at 1.935 billion bushels vs 1.500 billion currently estimated for this year, 22/23 soybean ending stocks 300 million vs 320 million this year, 22/23 wheat ending stocks 636 million vs 580 million this year and 22/23 SBO ending stocks 1.833 billion pounds vs 1.798 billion this year. We compiled all of the USDA’s baseline balance sheets into a single PDF file, which is available on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/45704.
 Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined for the week ended 11/02/21 showed funds were massive net buyers in corn of nearly 80k contracts, jumping their net long to 325k contracts, the highest since early May. Funds were net buyers across grain/oilseed markets with 18.8k contracts in soybeans (net long 43k), 14.5k CBOT wheat (net long 6k), 8.8k SBM (net short 6k), 3.1k SBO (net long 89k), 4.3k KCBT wheat (net long 57k) and 0.9k MPLS wheat (net long 17k).