Select Page

-Oilseeds Crushings report this afternoon
-USDA reports routine soybean sales to China
-Brazil soybean planting continues very fast
-Egypt tenders for wheat again – Russian still lowest
-Wide open U.S. weather for final harvest push

 This afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Oilseeds Crushings report and Grain Crushings report. The average trade estimate of September U.S. soybean crush is 163.6 million bushels (162.9-165.0 million range of ideas), reflecting nationwide crush 6.4% larger than NOPA-member crush, exactly the same average deviation seen in recent months, and compares to 168.3 million in August and would be 4.3% below last year’s 171.1 million bushels. The average estimate of end September U.S. soybean oil stocks is 2.190 billion pounds (2.136-2.210 billion range), up marginally from 2.184 billion in August, reflecting nationwide stocks 30% larger than NOPA member-only stocks, right in line with the average deviation between the two in recent months. Moreover, Sept soybean oil stocks reflect the end of the 2020/21 marketing year with the average trade estimate putting stocks considerably above the USDA’s current official estimate of 2.063 billion pounds and appearing
appropriate based on the previously-reported higher-than-expected NOPA stocks data.
 Ukraine exported 3.5 MMT of wheat in October, bringing marketing year to date (Jul-Oct) exports to 12.4 MMT vs 10.6 MMT exported during the same period last year. Corn exports in Oct were roughly 900k tonnes, bringing marketing year to date exports to 2.3 MMT vs 2.5 MMT a year ago. Ukraine currently expects 2021/22 wheat exports of 24.5 MMT vs USDA’s 23.5 MMT and last year’s 16.9 MMT, with corn exports expected around 30.9 MMT vs USDA’s 31.5 MMT and 23.8 MMT last year.
ï‚· USDA reported routine soybean sales of 132k tonnes to China this morning.
ï‚· AgRural estimates Brazilian soybean planting at 52% complete, maintaining the 2nd fastest pace on record, up from 38% the previous week and comparing to 42% last year. First corn crop planting was estimated at 63% vs 53% last week and 54% last year.
ï‚· A wide open weather week should allow for U.S. corn and soybean harvests to push near completion and allow SRW planting the eastern belt to finally push to near completion, as well.
ï‚· Russian wheat export values moved solidly higher last week, with Sovecon putting 12.5% protein supplies at Black Sea ports up $9/tonne for the week at $325/tonne fob and IKAR pegging prices up $5 at $317/tonne fob.
ï‚· Saudi Arabia ended up buying 1.268 MMT of milling wheat following their recent tender at an average price of $377.54/tonne c&f for Jan-Apr shipment periods. Prices ranged from $370.61-$379.42/tonne c&f.
ï‚· Over the weekend, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Dec 11-20 shipment. The three lowest offers were all Russian at $363.88-$364.84/tonne c&f ($331.90-$332.86 fob), with the next lowest offer being Romanian at $367.85/tonne c&f ($337.00 fob).
 November soybean deliveries saw 917 contracts redelivered of Friday’s first notice day heavy issues of 1,318 contracts, with the last trade date now up to 10/28/21.
ï‚· Malaysian palm oil exports in October were down 11-14% from Sept exports according to two different cargo surveyor estimates at 1.453-1.469 MMT and were well below year ago Oct exports of 1.725 MMT.

CCSTrade
Share This