-Russian wheat prices continue to rise – crop/export ideas bumped higher yet
-USDA reports corn sold to Mexico
-Funds likely near record long in soybeans
-South American forecast still lacking rains
-Wide open U.S. harvest week ahead
-USDA reports Friday
USDA’s monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports will be out Friday at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis will be out later today. U.S. corn harvest in this afternoon’s update is expected to be 22-24% with soybeans 33-35%.
 Argentina announced the full details of the temporary export tax cuts for oilseeds, with the country’s oilseed crushing association CIARA, among others, calling the plan insufficient. For soybeans, the current 33% export tax will be lowered to 30% for October, but then begin to be increased to 31.5% in November, 32% in December and back to 33% in January. For soybean meal and oil, the current 33% export tax will be cut to 28% in October, moving back to 29.5% in Nov, 30% in Dec and 31% in January.
 The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release their monthly report on Monday, October 12. The average estimate of Malaysian palm oil production in September is 1.953 MMT (1.830-2.012 MMT range of ideas), up from 1.863 MMT in August and 1.842 MMT last year September and would be the highest monthly production since October 2018. September palm oil exports are estimated at 1.680 MMT (1.581-1.740 MMT range), up from 1.582 MMT in August and last year’s 1.410 MMT. End September Malaysian palm oil stocks are seen at 1.721 MMT (1.660-1.800 MMT range), up slightly from 1.699 MMT in August, but well below year ago September stocks of 2.448 MMT.
 Russia wheat prices continue to rise with 12.5% protein Black Sea port values up $4/tonne last week to $237/tonne fob according to IKAR. Separately, IKAR further marginally bumped their estimate of the Russian wheat crop higher to 83.0 MMT from 82.8 MMT previously (USDA 78.0 MMT). Furthermore, Sovecon again raised their estimate of Russian wheat exports this year to 38.9 MMT from 37.2 MMT previously and up sharply from last year’s 33.8 MMT. USDA last estimated this year’s wheat exports at 37.5 MMT.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 160k tonnes of corn to Mexico for 2020/21 this morning.
 Preliminary data showed French soft wheat exports in September to non-EU destinations were the lowest of any month for at least 11 years at roughly 166k tonnes. This year’s extremely poor crop will slash French wheat exports for the year to historically low levels.
 The UK’s ag minister put this year’s wheat crop at 10.1 MMT, down sharply from last year’s 16.2 MMT in comparable fashion to other EU nations’ considerably lower production levels.
 Strategie Grains’ first estimate of expected 2021/22 EU rapeseed planted area at 5.45 million hectares is essentially unchanged from this year’s
5.47 MMT, in which production reached 17.1 MMT vs 17.3 MMT the previous year and 20.3 MMT two years prior. Continued dryness into the fall planting season negatively impacted planting once again.
 Friday afternoon’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined, for the week ended 9/29/20 (the day before the September Grain Stocks report), showed funds adding another 17.9k contracts in net longs in soybeans, now at 229.0k contracts vs the record fund net long of 253.9k contracts. Wire services estimated net fund buying last week from Wed-Fri was 26.5k contracts and would put funds at a new record long of 255.5k contracts if accurate. For the week, funds were net buyers of 10.9k contracts in corn to increase their net long to 106.8k, with estimated buying since of 59k contracts, as well. The fund net long in corn, though, remains nowhere near record levels of 429k contracts. Funds were net buyers of 7.8k contracts in soybean meal (net long 73.0k), but were net sellers in soybean oil of 7.6k (net long 94.1k), sellers of 2.1k CBOT wheat (net long 12.4k), 2.5k MPLS wheat (net short 4.8k) and 0.4k KCBT wheat (net long 18.0k).
Weather
Rains of .20-.70†fell across southern IA, into central IL and N IN, with totals of generally less than .20†elsewhere over the weekend. The week ahead looks mostly dry and clear for harvest. The next organized rains appear likely for next Monday with 85-90% coverage of .25-.75†expected. Dry weather dominated most of the Brazilian growing regions over the weekend, with totals of .35-.85†in RGDS, eastern Santa Catarina and Parana, as well as into the northwest 1/3rof Mato Grosso. Dry weather also dominated most of the Argentine growing regions, with totals of generally less than .25†in the southern ½ of B.A. and La Pampa. The near term forecast remains mostly dry for Brazil with only .30-.80†expected across northern RGDS, most of Santa Catarina and southern Parana this week. The 6-10 day continues to show a bit better rain chances with areas north of Parana seeing .40-1â€+ of around 85% from the weekend into early next week. The Argentine growing regions look to see mainly dry weather occur for the next 10 days, though.