-FSA acreage update supports USDA planted area estimates
-China’s updated balance sheets hold little surprise
-USDA reports more corn/soybean sales
-Brazil temporarily extends tariff-free ethanol imports
-Black Sea wheat prices remain strong
Crop conditions this afternoon are expected to stabilize after the recent widespread rains across the corn belt. September futures go off the board at 12:00 CT today.
 In their monthly supply/demand revisions, China lowered their estimate of this year’s corn crop to 264.7 MMT from 266.5 MMT last month and compares to last year’s 260.8 MMT. They raised 2020/21 corn imports to 7.0 MMT from 5.0 MMT previously (7.0 MMT 2019/20), which still is very likely too light with 8.8 MMT of U.S. corn already on the books, while leaving total consumption unchanged at 288.2 MMT this month, but up 10 MMT from 278.3 MMT in 2019/20. Accordingly, China’s estimate of 2020/21 corn stocks declining 16.5 MMT from this year was essentially unchanged from last month’s reflection and compares to 2019/20’s 10.6 MMT decline. They left the 2020/21 soybean balance sheet assessment completely unchanged from last month with imports at 95.1 MMT (96.0 MMT 2019/20), total consumption at 113.1 MMT (108.6
MMT 19/20) and ending stocks ticking up by 650k tonnes in 2020/21 following 2019/20’s 5.4 MMT increase. Total vegoil imports in 2020/21 were raised to 8.45 MMT from 7.70 MMT last month and compares to 8.96 MMT in 2019/20 (soybean oil unchanged at 700k tones (890k last year), rapeseed oil 1.80 MMT vs 1.40 MMT last month/1.80 MMT last year, palm oil 4.2 MMT (unchanged from last month/4.50 MMT last year). China does not provide actual ending stocks estimates, but instead the estimated change in ending stocks from the previous year.
 Friday afternoon, the FSA issued their monthly update on program acres and Prevented Planting acres as of September 1. This month’s update showed a significant increase in reported program acres for corn and soybeans, rising 6.4 million and 5.5 million acres, respectively, from the initial report of the year providing acreage reports as of July 31, to 87.6 million for corn and 81.5 million for soybeans. The notable increases bring reported program acres for corn to 95.1% of the USDA’s current 92.0 million acre planted acreage estimate and soybeans to 97.2% of the USDA’s 83.8 mil planted acre estimate. Over the last five years, the FSA’s final reported program acres for corn and soybeans reflected an average of 96.9% and 98.5% of official planted acreage, respectively. Given the sharp jump in program acreage reported this month and with four more months of updates to come, we see no reason to expect noteworthy revisions in planted acreage numbers from those currently
reflected by USDA. This month’s FSA data bumped up Prevented Planting acres for corn to 6.08 million acres from 5.38 million reported a month ago and soybeans to 1.45 mil acres from 1.22 million last month.
ï‚· USDA issued a number of export sales daily announcements this morning. Sales to China included 350k tonnes of corn and 129k tonnes of soybeans, while sales of 318k tonnes of soybeans to unknown and 106k tonnes of corn to Japan were reported, as well.
ï‚· Brazil officially extended the tariff-free ethanol import quota for 90 days, effective immediately, which will be available for 187.5 million liters of ethanol. This reflects a continuation of the previous program which allowed 750 mil liters to be imported annually tariff-free, divided quarterly to allow 187.5 mil liters each quarter before the 20% tariff was applied. The extension of the quota will be used for both sides to come to the negotiating table over sugar and ethanol trade moving forward.
ï‚· Playing both sides for the issue, President Trump is reportedly considering direct financial aid for oil refiners who were denied waiver exemptions for RFS biofuel blending mandates.
 Black Sea region wheat export values remain strong, with 12.5% protein Russia wheat rising $8/tonne last week to $222-$224/tonne fob in the 3rd consecutive weekly price increase. Similarly, Ukrainian wheat prices were up $6-$7/tonne last week to $220-$224 fob, as well. Sovecon estimates Russian wheat exports in September will be 5.100 MMT, up from 4.495 MMT in August and solidly above last year’s 4.156 MMT as Russia appears set for a very strong 2020/21 export program. Egypt’s GASC bought a total of 2.4 MMT of wheat in July and August vs 1.72 MMT last year, with nearly 2.1 MMT of it being Russian origin. Egypt has said they have increased early purchases of wheat this year in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, wanting to pre-emptively get supplies on the books in case of continued rising prices and/or logistical export restrictions being put in place.
ï‚· Saudi Arabia ended up buying 745k tonnes of optional-origin wheat following their recent tender, with 685k tonnes being 12.5% protein at an average price of $251.31/tonne c&f for Nov-Jan delivery and 60k tonnes of 11% protein at $245.37 c&f for Nov delivery.
Weather
Over the weekend, rains of .50-1.25â€+ fell across northeast MO, the eastern 1/3 of IA, the northwest 1/3 of IL and most of WI, with totals of .20-.60†in the rest of the region. A mostly dry week is expected. Temps in the next 10 days will run below average in most of the region, but with no cold air threats.