-No major surprises in Stats Can production estimates
-Ukraine expects record grain crop
-USDA reports more routine soybean sales to China
-Brazil 1st corn crop planting underway – area expected steady
-First notice day for Sept deliveries tomorrow
-Egypt tenders for wheat – Romania lowest offer
 Statistics Canada released their first official crop production estimates of the year this morning. The all wheat crop was estimated at 22.948 MMT, marginally above the average trade estimate of 22.6 MMT (18.9-25.4 MMT range of ideas) and compares to USDA’s latest estimate of 24.0 MMT and last year’s 35.18 MMT. This would be the smallest wheat crop since 2007/08. The spring wheat crop was estimated at 16.102 MMT vs the average estimate of 15.9 MMT (12.8-17.9 MMT range) and 25.84 MMT last year, while the durum crop was estimated at 3.998 MMT vs the average trade estimate of 4.1 MMT (3.3-5.4 MMT range) and 6.57 MMT last year. The canola crop was estimated at 14.749 MMT, above the average trade estimate of 14.1 MMT (11.4-16.2 MMT range), but still the lowest in nine years and compares to USDA at 16.0 MMT and 18.72 MMT last year. The oat crop was estimated at 3.070 MMT, in line with average expectations of 3.0 MMT (2.4-3.3 MMT range) and down sharply from 4.58 MMT last year, while barley was estimated 7.836 MMT vs the average trade estimate of 7.4 MMT (6.2-
10.1 MMT range) and 10.74 MMT last year.
 Ukraine’s ag ministry estimated this year’s wheat crop at 32.0 MMT, up sharply from last year’s 25.4 MMT, but a bit below USDA’s last estimate of 33.0 MMT, while the corn crop was estimated at 37.1 MMT vs USDA last at 39.0 MMT and last year’s 30.3 MMT. With the larger crops this year, the ag ministry estimated 2021/22 wheat exports at 23.8 MMT (USDA 23.8 MMT/16.8 MMT last year) and corn exports at 30.9 MMT (USDA 32.0/23.5 MMT last year). In total, Ukraine sees
a record total grain crop of 80.6 MMT with exports of 60.7 MMT. Ukraine estimated the sunseed crop at 16.5 MMT vs 14.0 MMT last year, with 2021/22 sunflower oil exports estimated at 6.35 MMT vs 5.38 MMT last year and just shy of the 2019/20 record of 6.69 MMT.
 Sovecon estimates Russian August wheat exports at 4.3 MMT, modestly below last year’s 4.67 MMT, but the lowest for the month in four years. July exports were 1.460 MMT vs 2.337 MMT last year.
 Brazilian ag consultant AgRural expects only a minor increase in this year’s 1st corn crop area of 0.6% from last year as high input prices are expected to influence acreage decisions towards soybeans. With an improvement in yields, though, the see the 1st corn crop rising 2.7 MMT from last year to 21.5 MMT. Planting is underway at 5% complete vs 8% at this time last year.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 256k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2021/22 delivery this morning.
ï‚· Tomorrow is first notice day for September deliveries.
ï‚· After the close on Friday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Oct 15-25 shipment. Three of the four lowest offers were Romanian at $338.10-$345.64/tonne c&f ($308.50-$311.11 fob), while a single cargo of Ukrainian wheat was offered at $340.33/tonne c&f ($304.25 fob). The lowest Russian offer was $350.75 c&f ($315.00 fob).
ï‚· South Korea bought 66k tonnes of expected South American or South African corn at around $321.69/tonne c&f for late Nov arrival.
ï‚· Algeria tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Sept-Oct shipment, with offers due by tomorrow.
 Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for the week ended 8/24/21 showed funds net sellers of 7.9k contracts in corn (net long 271k), 14.0k soybeans (net long 83k), 12.2k CBOT wheat (net long 12k), 7.0k SBM (net long 21k) and 2.1k SBO (net long 67k). Funds were minor net buyers in KCBT wheat of 0.9k contracts (net long 16k) and 0.8k MPLS wheat (net long 47k).