-Heavy weekend rains across central corn belt
-Statistics Canada acreage estimate update tomorrow
-Romanian wheat lowest offer in Egypt tender
-Funds liquidate corn/soybean longs
-Additional rains to favor already-wet areas
-USDA reports Wednesday – trade estimate summary included
Over the weekend, roughly 65-70% of the corn belt saw .50-3.5†rains, with extremely heavy amounts in a band from mid-Oklahoma through mid-Missouri and through mid-Illinois where 7-10â€+ were seen in places. Much of IA saw good amounts/coverage with the exception of the SW quarter of the state. ND saw decent amounts and coverage in the eastern 2/3, while SD activity was lighter and benefitted the eastern ½. Additional rains early this week look to again favor the southeastern 2/3 of the belt, with the lightest amounts/coverage in the Dakotas, MN, NE and IA.
USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report and Acreage report will be released Wednesday, June 30 at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report
commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44340. A summary of the trade estimates is on the last page.
 Tomorrow morning, Statistics Canada will release their updated 2021/22 planted area estimates. The average estimate of all wheat area is 23.3 million acres (22.5-24.9 million range of ideas), essentially unchanged from Stat Can’s April estimate of 23.260 million and down from last year’s 24.982 million. Durum wheat area is estimated at 5.5 million acres (5.0-6.0 mil range) vs 5.71 mil in April/5.689 mil last year. Canola area is estimated at 22.5 mil acres (22.0-23.0 mil range) vs 21.53 million in April and 20.783 million last year, while oat area is estimated at 3.6 mil acres (3.3-3.8 mil range), unchanged from 3.61 mil in April, but down a bit from 3.839 million last year. Barley area is estimated at 8.4 mil acres (7.6-8.9 mil range) vs 8.61 mil in April/7.561 mil last year.
ï‚· Ideas on U.S. corn and soybean crop conditions in this afternoon are for a 1-2% increase in good/excellent, while spring wheat conditions are likely to slip again.
 Without providing details, China’s state planner said central and local governments will start buying pork for state reserves in order to support domestic prices which have declined sharply this year.
ï‚· Not surprising given the weakness in other global markets of late, Ukraine 12.5% protein milling wheat for Black Sea export prices declined $4/tonne last week to $236-$244/tonne fob according to APK-Inform, while corn prices fell $12/tonne to $272-$280/tonne fob.
 Strategie Grains ticked their estimate of the EU rapeseed crop up to 17.0 MMT from 16.8 MMT previously and compares to last year’s 16.45 MMT, while the sunseed crop was bumped lower to 9.82 MMT from 9.88 MMT, but remains up sharply from last year’s 8.68 MMT.
ï‚· Over the weekend, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Aug 25-Sept 5 shipment. The five lowest offers were all Romanian at $270.78-$276.48/tonne c&f ($242.93-$246.00 fob), while the lowest Russian offer was $249.75 fob and the lowest Ukrainian $248.00 fob.
 Soybean oil recovered overnight from some of Friday’s beating, which was triggered by the Supreme Court’s ruling favoring small refineries which overturned a lower court’s ruling that extensions of previous blending waivers were not permissible once they had expired.
 Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report showed On Feed as of June 1 at 100.2% of last year, slightly below average expectations of 100.5 due to May placements being well below expectations at 93.1 vs the average estimate of 95.4. May marketings of 123.4 were in line with the average estimate.
 Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined, for the week ended 6/22/21, showed funds continuing to liquidate longs in the grain markets being net sellers of 27.2k contracts in soybeans and now net long only 80.3k contracts (smallest since August 2020), while being net sellers of 9.3k contracts in corn to reduce their net long to 243.5k (smallest since October 2020). Funds were net sellers of 15.1k contracts in soybean oil (net long 52.2k), 2.6k KCBT wheat (net long 14.9k) and 4.4k MPLS wheat (net long 10.9k). Funds were net buyers of 11.4k contracts in CBOT wheat to get back to near net even (net long 3.0k) and 1.0k SBM (net long 20.1k).