-Black Sea grain prices down sharply last week
-USDA Ag Sec says U.S. feed corn not impacted by Mexico’s GMO plans
-Fund long in corn approaching record again
-China wheat auction interest declines again
-USDA reports Wednesday – trade estimate summary included
The market awaits Wednesday’s potentially pivotal Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports. Our pre-report commentary can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43373. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page. Overnight price action was lightly defensive/consolidative in nature ahead of Wednesday’s reports.
 U.S. Ag Sec Vilsack said recent conversations he’s had with Mexico’s Ag Secretary confirmed their previously-reported plans to ban the use of GMO corn over the next three years is only for that used for human consumption, while corn used for feed,
primarily imported from the U.S., would not be impacted.
ï‚· Black Sea wheat export values were down solidly last week, with Russian 12.5% protein supplies falling $16/tonne to $257/tonne fob according to IKAR, while Sovecon reflects prices down $21/tonne at $53/tonne fob. Weather for the new wheat crop remains favorable with good rainfall expected this week in key growing areas. Ukrainian wheat for export were down roughly $20/tonne last week, as well, to $254-$260/tonne fob according to APK-Inform. Corn export prices were down $7/tonne last week to $248- $255/tonne fob. Spring grain planting is just getting underway in Ukraine, a few weeks later than usual due to cool temps.
 Ukraine slightly trimmed their official estimate of last year’s (2020/21) wheat crop to 24.9 MMT from 25.1 MMT previously, while USDA is last at 25.5 MMT.
 China’s weekly auction of state wheat reserves saw the lowest interest since late December with 1.030 MMT of the 4.002 MMT offered (25.8%) sold at an average price of 2,354 yuan/tonne ($359.75), nearly unchanged from the previous week’s 2,356 yuan/tonne average price, but still the lowest since late Dec, as well.
ï‚· There are ideas China bought more than 3 MMT of Black Sea corn for Oct-Dec shipment last week.
 Ukraine’s econ ministry said they 2020/21 (old crop) sunflower oil production at 5.92 MMT and exports of 5.52 MMT vs last
year’s USDA-estimated 7.39 MMT production and 6.69 MMT exports. Ukraine’s production and export ideas are exactly in line
with the USDA’s last estimates. APK-Inform sees this year’s production at 6.02 MMT (7.03 MMT last year) and exports at 5.6
MMT (6.63 MMT last year).
 Friday afternoon’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for the week ended 3/23/21 showed funds modest net buyers in corn and
soybeans of 17.3k contracts and 6.8k contracts, respectively, pushing the fund net long to 388k contracts in corn and 163k in
soybeans. Funds now hold the largest net long in corn since February 2011 and nearing the record net long of 429k contracts in September 2010. The fund net long in soybeans, on the other hand, is still much more modest relative to the record of 254k
contracts. Funds were net sellers in other grain markets for the week of 9.4k contracts in CBOT wheat, 12.1k KCBT wheat, 0.7k
MPLS wheat, 4.7k soybean oil and 3.6k soybean meal. Overall fund exposure in wheat is quite limited, while they hold a modest net long in SBM and relatively large net long in SBO.
Weather
Argentina saw .50-1.5†across the southern ½ of Buenos Aries and up across most of Corrientes over the weekend, with conditions mainly dry elsewhere. The next five days look dry across the country, while the 6-10 day period only shows .50-1â€+ across the southern 1/3 to ½ of Buenos Aries and La Pampa.
Brazil saw 1-2†across RGDS and Santa Catarina, with .40-1†falling in the eastern ½ of Parana and Sao Paulo, as well as the
northern 1/3 of Mato Grosso over the weekend. Most areas look dry over the next 5 days except for .40-1†in far northern RGDS and most of Santa Catarina, as well as the northern 1/3-½ of Mato Grosso. The 6-10 day period shows 1-2†across the northern ¾ of Mato Grosso and far northern Goias, with little in the way of rainfall elsewhere.