-Record new crop Indonesian palm oil production expected
-No USDA sales announcements
-Good rains in U.S./Argentine forecast
-China wheat auction activity slows
 The USDA ag attaché in Indonesia sees 2021/22 palm oil production rising to a record 45.5 MMT from this year’s 43.0 MMT (USDA 43.5 MMT) on favorable rainy season activity and an increase in fertilizer use given the sharp rise in prices over the last year. The attaché sees 21/22 Indonesian palm oil exports rising to 30.0 MMT from 27.5 MMT this year (USDA 28.85 MMT), with industrial usage increasing only slightly to 9.0 MMT from 8.9 MMT this year (USDA 8.5 MMT). The attaché sees new crop palm oil ending stocks at 4.905 MMT vs 4.805 MMT this year, solidly above USDA’s current old crop stocks ideas of 3.880 MMT due to differences in export ideas.
 Malaysian palm oil prices rebounded solidly overnight, supporting SBO, following last week’s beating. Benchmark June futures were up more than 3% after falling 7.5% last week.
ï‚· Along with the overall commodity price weakness last week, Black Sea wheat export values declined notably, as well, with Russian 12.5% protein prices down $7/tonne to $273/tonne fob according to IKAR, with Ukrainian wheat also falling $7/tonne to $274-$279/tonne fob.
ï‚· Sovecon solidly lowered their estimate of Russian wheat exports in March to only 900k tonnes from 2.0 MMT previously and compares to 3.8 MMT exported in February and 3.4 MMT last year March. In quite a rarity, they estimate corn exports to be larger than wheat at 1.0 MMT for March, up sharply from 315k tonnes in Feb and 551k last year March.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning after three consecutive daily corn sales announcements to China last week.
 China sold 1.633 MMT of the 4.020 MMT of wheat (40.6%) offered at this week’s state reserve auction, the lowest percentage result since late December. The average price paid of 2,356 yuan/tonne ($362) was the lowest since late Dec, as well.
 Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report didn’t hold any surprises with on feed as of March 1 reported at 101.6 vs the average trade estimate of 101.5, while Feb placements of 98.1 compared to 98.3 “expected†and Feb marketings 97.6 vs 97.4 expected.
 Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined for the week ended 3/16/21 showed funds modest net sellers across the grain complex, with the exception of corn. Specifically, funds were net sellers of 3.6k contracts in soybeans (net long 156.0k), 3.0k SBM (net long 61.2k), 0.9k SBO (net long 98.7k), 10.1k CBOT wheat (net long 17.5k), 9.3k KCBT wheat (net long 8.3k) and 0.7k MPLS wheat (net long 15.9k). On the other hand, funds were net buyers of 14.4k contracts in corn and are net long 370.9k contracts.
Weather
Over the weekend, rains of .50-1.5†fell across the NE 1/3 of Buenos Aries, most of Entre Rios, the northern ½ of Santa Fe and southern ½ of Corrientes, while totals elsewhere were generally under .25â€. Conditions look quiet through Wednesday and then good rains of .50-1â€+ are forecast for most of Buenos Aries and La Pampa, with 1-2†in Santa Fe, Entre Rios and Corrientes by Thursday. The 6-10 day period looks fairly quiet again with only Corrientes and possibly into far northern Entre Rios/Santa Fe expected to see .50-1â€+. Brazil saw dry weather dominate most of Santa Catarina, Parana, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais over the weekend, with totals of .50-1â€+ widespread across RGDS, MGDS, Mato Grosso and Goias. Dry weather looks to occur across Minas Gerais, Goias, Sao Paulo, MGDS and northern Parana in the next 5 days, with totals of .50-1.5†in RGDS, Santa Catarina Parana and Mato Grosso. The 6-10 day period shows rains of 1-2†common across RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana, as well as MGDS. Totals elsewhere are indicated to be in the .25-.75†range.
A pair of low pressure systems will bring widespread rains to much of the southern Plains and all of the Midwest in the next 5 days. Combined totals from both are in the .75-1.5†range in most cases, with nearly 100% coverage. Only the southern TX panhandle looks to see mainly light totals. Some 2-3†totals are also possible in central KS and then into eastern MO and the NW ½ of IL.