-NOPA crush report today at 11:00 AM CT
-Ukraine winter grains in very good condition
-Ag spec limits increase today
-Good precip in much of the US Plains
 NOPA will release their monthly crush data today at 11:00 AM CT. The average estimate of February soybean crush by NOPA members is 168.6 million bushels (158.8-175.3 million range of ideas), reflecting another record for the month in surpassing last year’s 166.3 million and compares to 184.7 million in January. However, the estimated 1.4% increase from last year would easily be the smallest year-over-year gain of 2020/21 so far as Sept-Jan NOPA crush gains ranged from +4.4 to +9.4%. The average estimate implies nationwide crush in Feb of roughly 178.7 million bushels vs 175.3 million last year. The average estimate of end Feb soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 1.839 billion pounds (1.650-1.932 billion range), up from 1.799 billion pounds in January, but below last year’s 1.922 billion.
 Ukraine’s state meteorology office said 98% of the winter wheat crop is currently in good condition, with 100% of the winter barley crop in good condition.
ï‚· New speculative trade position limits go into effect today for the grains, with spot month limits essentially doubling and total positions held allowances increasing substantially (see table on following page for details).
ï‚· Russian wheat export values dipped last week, with IKAR putting 12.5% protein Black Sea fob values at $280/tonne fob, down $5 from last year, while APK-Inform said comparable Ukrainian wheat values declined $1-$2/tonne to $279-$286/tonne fob. Ukrainian corn export prices rose $2-$4/tonne last week to $259-$265/tonne fob.
 China sold 2.263 MMT of wheat at this week’s reserve auction, 56.1% of the offered amount, reflecting an uptick from the 45-51% sales rates in recent weeks, while the 2,376 yuan/tonne (~$365) average price was essentially unchanged from the previous week’s 2,372 yuan/tonne and 2,373 average of the previous three weeks.
ï‚· Sovecon estimates Russian wheat exports in March will be 2.0 MMT vs 3.761 MMT exported in February and 3.358 MMT last year March. Corn exports in March are estimated at 800k tonnes, an 11-month high and up from 315k tonnes in February.
Weather
The Argentine outlook continues to look decent. While weekend activity was limited to .50-1.5†across most of La Pampa and Santa Fe, widespread, essentially 100% coverage of .50-1â€+ rains are expected during the week. Additionally, the 6-10 day period shows another .50-1â€+ rain event for all areas, with the exception of Buenos Aires which looks dry for the period at this time.
In Brazil, dry weather dominated most of RGDS, Santa Catarina, Parana and Sao Paulo over the weekend, with .75-1.5†rains in MGDS, Goias and southern Minas Gerais, while .25-.75†totals were common across Mato Grosso Do Sul. Dry weather looks to occur across most of Minas Gerais this week, with totals of 1-2†in Mato Grosso and Goias and .50-1†elsewhere. The 6-10 day outlook is a bit mixed with the GFS indicating 1-2†in Mato Grosso, with .50-1â€+ in Goias and MGDS. Totals of .50-1†are also seen for most of RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana, with amounts elsewhere generally under .35â€. The European sees rains of 1-2†for northern Mato Grosso and most of RGDS, with generally less than .25†elsewhere.
A powerful spring storm brought rains of 1-3†to NE, KS, the northern 1/3rd of OK and the panhandles of TX and OK, with the rest of OK and TX seeing totals of .20-.60†over the weekend. Another low will form in the southern Plains by tomorrow night and Wednesday and will bring totals of .75-1.5â€+ to most of KS, as well as the OK panhandle and far northern TX panhandle, much of it falling as 3-6†snows in SW KS and the panhandles. Amounts in the rest of OK and TX look to be in the .35†range or less.