-Soybean exports remain strong – within expectations
-Corn exports ramping up – above expectations – marketing year high
-Wheat exports within expectations
It’s another quiet news morning ahead of tomorrow USDA WASDE report. Grains are higher on widespread positive markets with energies and equities on the plus side. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at
https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/42847. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
 Brazil’s soybean harvest is still only 3-4% complete vs 2% the week prior and remains well behind last year’s 15% pace (13%
average).
ï‚· Black Sea wheat export values fell last week with Russian prices down $7-$10/tonne for 12.5% protein supplies at $285-
$286/tonne fob, with Ukrainian wheat down $10-$11/tonne at $280-$285/tonne fob.
 China’s weekly state reserve wheat auction saw 1.7 MMT of the 4.0 MMT offered (42.7%) sold, the lowest in five weeks, while
the average selling price declined for the 3rd consecutive week to 2,359 yuan/tonne ($365.72).
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
ï‚· Recently-launched Chinese hog futures were sharply higher overnight (+4%) on renewed reports of severe disease outbreaks in some locations, although the extent and degree of the outbreaks is unknown. However, some have said they believe up to 20% of sows in northern China have been impacted again by ASF, and up to 30% in some locations in the south.
 Friday afternoon’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined for the week ended 2/02/21 showed funds net sellers across grain/oilseed markets of 19.1k contracts in corn (net long 345k), 7.1k SBM (net long 67.5k), 3.8k KCBT wheat (net long 56.4k), 1.4k SBO (net long 106k), 1.4k CBOT wheat (net long 20k), 0.6k MPLS wheat (net long 14k) and 0.3k soybeans (net long 156k).
Weather
Rains of .50-1.5â€+ fell across Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais in Brazil over the weekend, with conditions things mainly dry elsewhere. Rains of 2-4†will fall in the northern ½ of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais in the next 5 days, with .40-1†expected in roughly 70% of the rest of their growing regions. The 6-10 day period shows 2-4†from roughly Parana north, with totals of .50-1.5â€+ in Santa Catarina and RGDS.
Argentina was dry over the weekend. Conditions look to be mainly dry in most of La Pampa and the western ½ of Santa Fe over the next five days, while .50-1.5†rains are expected everywhere else. The 6-10 day outlook remains a bit mixed, but it’s now differing on amounts rather than rain/no rain. Specifically, the European shows widespread 1†amounts for Buenos Aries, while the GFS sees totals of .25-.75â€. Both models see totals of .25-.75†and coverage of around 75% of occur in the rest of the Argentine growing regions in this time frame.