-Trade deal signing week as market hopes for Chinese purchases
-South American weather remains mostly favorable
-USDA confirms South Korea purchases of US corn
-Funds still modest net short in corn, large net long SBO
It’s trade deal signing week so look for the market’s attention to shift from last week’s USDA reports to any signals of Chinese purchases to come. The lack of details continues to be a major thorn in the market’s side with the entire trade deal so anything providing some clarity on potential quantities and/or timing of ag purchases will be closely watched. Without any blockbuster developments in Friday’s slew of numbers, the focus will be heavily on demand prospects moving forward, with increasing attention on South American crop ideas, which remain solid with good rains, and ultimately U.S. new crop acreage/crop prospects with the inescapable issue of 19.6 million Prevent Planting acres from last year needing to find a home.
ï‚· Many in the trade are expecting to see some Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans post-trade deal signing on Wednesday, but it may be whether any other purchases are made (corn, ethanol, DDGS) that gets more attention one way or the other.
 SovEcon estimated Russian wheat exports in January will be 1.9 MMT, solidly below last year’s 2.417 MMT and down from December’s higher than expected 2.518 MMT. If accurate, 2019/20 marketing year to date (July-Jan) exports of 22.5 MMT would compare to 27.1 MMT last year. Separately, Russia ag consultant IKAR sees 2019/20 total wheat exports at 33.5 MMT, slightly below the USDA’s just-lowered 34.0 MMT estimate (35.0 MMT previously/35.8 MMT last year).
 Friday afternoon’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined for the week ended 01/07/20 showed modest net fund buying in corn, wheat and soybeans, with small net selling in SBO and SBM. For the week, funds were net buyers of 1.6k contracts of corn, but are still net short 80.9k contracts, were net buyers of 4.3k soybeans, returning to net even (1.2k contracts net long) and small net buyers in CBOT wheat of 0.4k contracts (net long 27.7k). Funds were net buyers of 4.1k contracts in MPLS wheat (net short 4.3k) and 1.5k KCBT wheat (net long 2.8k). For the soybean products, funds were small net sellers of 2.5k contracts in SBM (net short 27.9k) and 1.3k SBO (net long 110.9k).
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 137k tonnes of corn to South Korea for 2019/20 delivery this morning. This appears to be confirmation of market talk of the sales last week.
Weather Rains of .50-1â€+ fell in most of the Argentine growing regions over the weekend, with dry weather in the southern 2/3 of Buenos Aries and La Pampa. A front will bring rains of .50-1†to most of the Argentine growing regions Tuesday and Wednesday, with conditions fairly quiet the rest of the week and remaining so for the weekend and early next week. Rains of .50-1.5†fell across most Brazilian growing regions over the weekend. Tropical, hit and miss, showers and thunderstorms will bring rains of .50-1.5 to most areas from Parana north this week, with a front to bring .50-1â€+ to areas from Parana south on Wednesday into Thursday. Rains of .50-1†look to fall in most of the Brazilian growing regions in the 6-10 day period, with some 1-2†totals across MGDS, Goias and Sao Paulo.