-Brazil Oct corn exports record large, but slowdown ahead?
-No USDA sales announcements
-Mostly dry 2+ week stretch for U.S. reduces harvest concerns
-Palm oil futures rally strongly pulling SBO along
 Brazil exported 6.138 MMT (242 mil bu) of corn in October, down slightly from 6.501 MMT in Sept, but nearly double last year’s Oct exports of 3.106 MMT (122 mil bu) as their export program continued to run full steam ahead for another month. The previous record Oct corn export were 5.548 MMT in 2016. Marketing year to date (March-Oct) Brazilian corn exports of 30.3 MMT are up 165% from last year’s 11.4 MMT. Brazilian grain exporter association, Anec, sees corn exports finally slowing in November to around 3.3 MMT, which would be below last year’s 4.0 MMT, as hopefully improved export opportunities for the U.S. develop in the months ahead on slowing South American exports from the persistent torrid pace since May.
 Brazil exported 4.869 MMT of soybeans in October, up slightly from 4.448 MMT in Sept, but a bit below year ago Oct exports of 5.218 MMT. Feb-Oct marketing year to date exports of 65.7 MMT are down solidly from last year’s 72.8 MMT. Brazilian exporter association, Anec, sees soybean exports in November around 4.1 MMT vs 5.1 MMT last year.
ï‚· Brazil exported 55.3 million gallons of ethanol in October vs 59.6 mil in Sept and 73.6 mil last year October. 2019 calendar year to date ethanol exports of 438 million gallons compare to 381 million gallons last year.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
ï‚· Malaysian palm oil futures rallied nearly 3% overnight to a 20-month high as the focus remains on longer-term fundamentals/ prospects for tightening supplies amid limited palm oil production growth over the coming year and expectations for strong demand, primarily for biodiesel amid rising blending mandates in Indonesia and Malaysia in 2020. Soybean oil rallied strongly overnight in reaction to the palm oil strength.
 Strategie Grains sees EU rapeseed production for 2020/21 rebounding to around 19 MMT from this year’s 16.9 MMT, but still below the 2018/19 crop of 20 MMT. The expected bounce in production is less than previously anticipated, though, as dry weather during this year’s fall planting reduced area once again.
 Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined for the week ended 10/29/19, showed funds small net buyers of soybeans of 3.5k contracts, increasing their net long to 72.3k contracts, the highest since late May 2018. Funds were also net buyers of 7.7k contracts in SBO, extending their net long to 75.4k contracts, the highest since late September 2017. Funds were net sellers, though, in all other grain markets for the week with corn selling of 9.3k contracts (net short 85.3k), 7.1k CBOT wheat (net long 5.0k), 3.5k KCBT wheat (net short 29.4k), 1.3k MPLS wheat (net short 9.4k) and 7.8k SBM (net short 29.1k).
 USDA’s early 10-year baseline projections reflected ideas for 2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks to surge to 2.754 billion bushels from this year’s 1.929 billion with a 4.6 mil acre increase and return to trend yields. 20/21 soybean ending stocks were pegged at 518 million vs this year’s 460 million and planted area up 7.5 million acres. 20/21 wheat ending stocks are seen remaining high at 950 mil bu, but down from 1.043 billion this year. See our post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/37896 for a PDF file of all the USDA long-term baseline projections for gains, softs and livestock.
ï‚· November soybean deliveries fell to 220 contracts today, but again all were stopped by JP Morgan (Cargill), bringing their total stops to 1,761 contracts in the 3 days of Nov deliveries so far.
Weather A mostly dry, cold week lies ahead, which should allow for aggressive harvest progress. A pair of clipper type systems will bring 1-3†snows to MN, WI, MI, with rains of generally less than .30†to northern sections of IA/IL. An area of low pressure will bring rains of .50-1â€+ to the southern 1/3 of MO as well as the southern ¼ of IL/IN later Wednesday into Thursday. The rest of the region looks to be largely free from precip this week. The weekend looks to be mainly dry and then by the first half of next week, a front is indicated to bring rains of generally less than .25†and coverage of around 65% to the region. Below average precip and temps are expected to continue through the 11-16 day period, as well, providing a 2+ week window of limited precip for the majority of the belt. Accordingly, harvest should effectively be able to near completion without major issue by Thanksgiving. An area of low pressure will bring rains to the far SE corner of KS, as well as much of OK and TX later Wednesday and Thursday of this week. This system looks to produce rains of .50-1â€+ in these areas. Rains of .50-1.5â€+ will fall across the northern Argentine growing regions of northern Entre Rios and most of Corrientes, as well as into the majority of the Brazilian growing regions this week. Some 2â€+ totals will be possible in RGDS, Santa Catarina and southern Parana in the next 5 days as well. The 6-10 day period had some strong differences in their ideas over the weekend, but have come into decent agreement. The forecast calls for rains of 1-2†to fall in most of the Brazilian growing regions, with rains in Argentina to be confined mainly to Buenos Aries, La Pampa in the south and Cordoba in the west. Temps will be running average to below average in most of the Argentine growing regions and average to above in the Brazilian growing regions in the next 10 days.