-Argentine forecast significantly improving with multiple rain events expected
-Very good Southern Plains precip expected
-USDA announces more corn sale to China
-Russian wheat crop ideas solidly raised
-Taiwan buys Argentine corn
-Cattle on Feed report Friday
The Argentine forecast continues to improve, with multiple rain events expected to produce good, widespread amounts over the next 10 days, clearly providing a significant benefit to soybeans and late planted corn. The Southern Plains are also on tap for soaking rains through mid next week (details below).
 USDA reported another 1.224 MMT of corn sold to China this morning and follows yesterday’s 1.156 MMT announcement. Based on last week’s Export Sales data, this brings China’s officially-reported purchases of U.S. corn to 21.1 MMT for 2020/21 and likely in the 23-24 MMT range when taking into consideration sales to unknown potentially being Chinese, as well.
ï‚· Brazilian oilseed association Abiove sees the soybean crop at 134.8 MMT (USDA 134.0 MMT/128.5 MMT last year) and exports at 84.0 MMT (USDA 85.1 MMT/82.6 MMT last year).
 Sovecon solidly raised their estimate of the coming Russian wheat crop to 79.3 MMT from 76.2 MMT previously citing conditions having “improved dramatically…thanks to mild winter and ample precipitation in recent weeks.†While still down from USDA’s estimate of last year’s crop of 85.4 MMT, at least for now the potential reduction in production is declining. USDA begins providing new crop global estimates in the May WASDE report.
ï‚· Friday afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. The average estimate of Cattle on Feed as of March 1 is 101.5% of last year (101.0-102.0 range of ideas) at 11.988 million head and follows Feb 1 of 101.5, while Dec 1 and Jan 1 on feed numbers were essentially unchanged from last year. The average estimate of Feb placements is 98.3 (94.8-103.6 range) vs 103.2 in Jan, while Feb marketings are estimated at 97.4 (95.0-98.0 range) vs 94.4 in Jan.
ï‚· Taiwan bought 65k tonnes of Argentine corn at +264 CU1 (~$301/tonne) c&f for FH June shipment. The lowest offer for U.S. corn was +279 CU1 (~$306/tonne).
ï‚· Malaysia will maintain the 8% crude palm oil export duty in place for April.
 The Indonesian Palm Oil Association reported palm oil exports in January fell to 2.86 MMT from 3.51 MMT in December and the lowest since September on declining demand from China and India, in particular. Palm oil production in January declined to 3.76 MMT from 4.04 MMT in Dec, a 10-month low but comparable to last year’s 3.81 MMT, resulting in end January stocks declining to 4.25 MMT from 4.87 MMT in Dec and compared to 4.52 MMT last year January.
Weather
Widespread .50-1.5â€+ rains were seen across all Argentine growing areas yesterday. Condition will be fairly quiet for today and tomorrow, and then another round of .75-1.5â€+ rains is expected to fall in all areas with the exception of the SW 2/3 of Buenos Aires by later Friday and into Saturday, with quiet weather returning for Sunday and Monday. Another round of widespread .50-1.5â€+ rains is indicated in the 6-10 day period, as well, a wetter forecast than previously shown. If the forecast plays out, nearly all areas will have received 1.5-4.5†of rains from yesterday through the end of next week.
An area of showers and thunderstorms produced rains of .35-1â€+ across the western TX panhandle, north central OK and the eastern ½ of KS yesterday. The forecast sees the next low to bring rains of .75-1.5†to the western TX panhandle, as well as the northern 1/3 of OK and SE ½ of KS in the next 24 hours, with totals of generally less than .30†in the rest of KS, OK and the TX panhandle. Those rains will finish up for eastern KS/OK tomorrow morning and then move into the Midwest. By Monday night into Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of next week, back to back areas of low pressure will bring rains of .75-1.5â€+ to most of KS, OK, TX, as well as all of the Midwest, except possibly OH.
Rains of .50-1.5†fell across most of RGDS, western Santa Catarina, most of Mato Grosso, western Goias and eastern MGDS yesterday. Dry weather looks to occur across most of Minas Gerais, with totals of 1-2†in Mato Grosso and Goias and totals of .50-1†in the rest of the Brazilian growing regions this week. The 6-10 day period shows .50-1.5†in RGDS, Santa Catarina and southern Parana, as well as up into most of Mato Grosso, with limited rains elsewhere.