-New crop corn sales near upper end of expectations
-New crop soybean sales as expected
-Wheat sales as expected
-SBM sales respectable/SBO sales weak
This was the last full week of the 2017/18 marketing year for corn so old crop sales are essentially irrelevant but were 30.1k tonnes vs expectations for net cancellations of 200k to sales of 150k. As we wrote earlier in the week with the Export Inspections data release, it appears 2017/18 corn exports are likely to prove 20-30 million bushels above the USDA’s current 2.400 billion bushel estimate. In one interesting observation from this week’s report, though, is the fact that old crop carryover sales to 2018/19 are going to be historically large as there are still 132 million bushels in old crop sales on the books vs just 40 million at this time last year. New crop sales were solid at 1.033 MMT (40.7 million bushels), coming in at the upper end of market expectations of 600k-1.1 MMT and put 2018/19 total commitments at 452 million bushels vs last year’s 334 million at this time. Adding in the old crop sales still on the books, effective new crop commitments currently sit around 580 million bushels vs 370 million last year heading into the new marketing year.
Old crop soybean sales were negligible at 0.6k tonnes as old crop commitments are cleaned up in the last week of the year. However, 35k tonnes in old crop sales to Argentina were reported, as were 60k tonnes for new crop, as well. Old crop remaining sales on the books of 98 million bushels are slightly higher than last year’s 87 million at this time, but are unremarkable. New crop sales were 673k tonnes (24.7 million bushels), right in line with market expectations of 400-900k tonnes, and put 2018/19 total commitments at 510 million bushels vs 479 million at this time last year. Adding in the old crop carryover sales currently on the books puts effective 2018/19 total commitments at 608 million bushels vs 566 million at this time last year. In new crop activity for the week, China saw net cancellations of 66k tonnes, while net sales to unknown were 424k tonnes. The largest individual sales went to Thailand with 116k tonnes.
Wheat sales were uneventful at 380k tonnes (14.0 mil bu), which were in line with market expectations of 200-500k tonnes, were in line with last year’s same-week sales of 13.8 million bushels and were little-changed from the previous week’s 15.2 million. However, total commitments of 344 million bushels remain down a woeful 25% from last year’s 458 million at this time, while the USDA’s 1.025 billion bushel export projection reflects an expected 13.8% increase in exports for the year. In order for that to occur, sales will likely need to average around 17.5 million bushels/week through the end of next May, a massive 65% stronger than last year’s 10.6 million/week average from this point forward.
Old crop soybean meal sales were respectable at 69k tonnes, in line with expectations of 0-100k and easily surpassing the mere 11k tonnes/week which we estimate will be needed over the last four full weeks of the 2017/18 to reach the USDA’s export projection. New crop sales were solid at 290k tonnes, in line with expectations of 100-400k tonnes, and brought 2018/19 total commitments to 1.745 MMT vs 2.064 MMT at this time last year. Soybean oil sales were very weak, with old crop seeing net cancellations of -3.7k tonnes and new crop sales being just 1.3k tonnes. Despite the weak old crop sales, the USDA’s 2017/18 export projection still appears on track to be reached.
