-Western Australia eyeing near record wheat crop as east suffers
-Trade estimates for next week’s USDA reports
-Drier weather on tap after expected heavy weekend rains
-Trade estimates for next week’s USDA reports
-Drier weather on tap after expected heavy weekend rains
It was another mostly uneventful session overnight with corn, wheat and soybeans all a bit lower heading into the break. While heavy rains are going to be seen across much of the corn belt over the next few days, a favorably drier trend appears to be setting up once the rains pass. It’s hard to argue with what should be very favorable overall conditions for soybean yields to finish strong.
 In the typical feast or famine nature that can be global agricultural production, good rains over the last month or so across Western Australia are expected to result in a near record wheat crop for the state, while production across eastern growing areas of Australia continues to suffer under significant drought conditions. Ideas for the Western Australia wheat crop, which is used heavily for exports, are currently near 11.0 MMT according to some estimates, up sharply from last year’s 7.945 MMT and just short of the 2011/12 record of 11.045 MMT. The state’s most-recent 5-year average production is 9.0 MMT. However, local traders said quality of this year’s WA crop is likely be less than average, resulting in more Australian Standard White wheat vs Australian Premium. Based on the WA crop ideas, total Australian wheat production thoughts are holding around 20 MMT vs last year’s 21.2 MMT, with USDA last at 22.0 MMT.
 The average trade estimates for U.S. crop production in next Wednesday’s USDA report, for those specifically estimating this month’s revisions are: corn 14.529 billion bushels/177.8 bu/acre yield vs USDA last month at 14.586 billion/178.4 yield, soybeans 4.649 billion bushels/52.2 bu/acre yield vs USDA last month at 4.586 billion/51.6 yield. The average estimates of 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks are: corn 2.028 billion bushels vs USDA 2.027 billion and soybeans 426 million vs USDA 430 million. For 2018/19, corn ending stocks are estimated at 1.639 bil bu vs 1.684 bil USDA last month, soybeans 830 million vs 785 mil last month, wheat 941 mil vs 935 mil last month.
 In a sign of China’s continuing efforts to source oilseeds from non-U.S. sources, even as small as the potential may be, Chinese customs officials said they will now start allowing soybean imports from Ethiopia. Over the last year, China had already been taking very small quantities from Ethiopia, but unfortunately, exact amounts are not known as China stopped reporting the country breakdown of commodity imports and exports in April. Through March, China imported 13.5k tonnes of soybeans from Ethiopia vs 14.9k tonnes in all of 2017.
ï‚· China sold 1.3 MMT of the 3.95 MMT of reserve corn offered at the 2nd auction of the week, bringing total sales of corn from state reserves this year to 75.3 MMT.