-Swine fever cases in China jump overnight – dichotomy between north and south impacts escalating
-Statistics Canada quarterly grain stocks report holds little surprise
-Next round of Chinese import tariffs set to be applied
-Interest in Chinese corn auctions remains stellar
-Expected rain totals across corn belt raised sharply
-Statistics Canada quarterly grain stocks report holds little surprise
-Next round of Chinese import tariffs set to be applied
-Interest in Chinese corn auctions remains stellar
-Expected rain totals across corn belt raised sharply
Due to the Labor Day holiday, this week’s EIA ethanol data will be out today, while Export Sales will be out Friday morning.
 China’s reported cases of African swine fever are accelerating with four cases reported on Thursday alone, and 8 since Sunday, with the total now at 13. Three of the new cases were in Heilongjiang province and one in Anhui. As a result of the transportation bans, in which operations are banned from shipping hogs from provinces with reported cases, there is a rapidly growing problem in China in which the majority of slaughterhouses are in the southern portion of the country and are unable to secure hogs for slaughter due to the fact the Chinese government instituted a plan several years ago to shift the majority of hog production to the north to be closer to feed supplies. It is estimated that more than 30k hogs are trucked from northern provinces to southern slaughterhouses daily, much of which is now at a standstill. This has resulted in northern production operations overflowing with hogs and piglets, while slaughterhouses sharply curtail operations due to the lack of live hogs. Accordingly, hog prices in the north are under significant pressure, while those in the south are moving sharply higher.
 Coming on the heels of Statistics Canada’s crop production report earlier in the week in which this year’s wheat and canola crops were estimated lower than expected, this morning’s Stat Can’s version of the quarterly Grain Stocks report did not include any surprises as total wheat stocks as of July 31 were reported at 6.180 MMT, right in line with average market expectations of 6.2 MMT (5.7-6.8 MMT range of ideas), but are down solidly from last year’s 6.856 MMT. July 31 canola stocks were reported at 2.391 MMT, slightly below average expectations of 2.5 MMT (2.2-2.8 MMT range of ideas) and are significantly larger than last year’s 1.342 MMT. July 31 oat stocks of 784k tonnes compared to average expectations of 873k (699k-1.0 MMT range) and last year’s 703k, while barley stocks of 1.256 MMT were in line with expectations of 1.2 MMT (900k-1.8 MMT range), but well below last year’s 2.122 MMT.
ï‚· The public comment period on the next round of import tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese products ends today, which could allow those tariffs to go into effect in short order. China is posed to issue import tariffs on an additional $60 billion in U.S. goods in retaliation. If the new tariffs go into effect, it would represent almost 40% of the total value of all Chinese goods imported by the U.S. in 2017.
ï‚· In what is likely to be one of the regular reaffirmations to come, a Russian ag ministry official said the country has no plans to impose and export tax on wheat, while reiterating their view of the total grain crop of 105 MMT.
 China’s auctions of state corn reserves continue to see very impressive demand as today’s resulted 2.987 MMT of corn being sold, the largest amount since mid-May, representing 75% of the 4.0 MMT offered, while the average price paid of $229.64/tonne ($5.83/bushel) was the highest since early July. So far, 74.0 MMT (2.9 billion bushels) of corn has been sold through the state reserve auctions since they began in mid-April. For reference, China produced 216 MMT of corn last year.