-Annual Chinese soybean “buying” delegation in US, but buying is absent
-Announcement of Russia ag ministry meeting with exporters rallies wheat yesterday
-Trade estimates for tomorrow’s Canadian crop production report -Australia expects continued dry weather in the east, increasing risk in the west
-Chinese corn auction sales impressively strong
 The wheat market led the strength yesterday on reports Russia’s ag ministry will meet with grain exporters again on September 3. This prompted speculation that a reduction in the allowed amount of wheat exports this year may be announced. However, this meeting is a routine one, not something that was called as a special event. Additionally, there are reports that the English translation by some of the ag ministry’s memo on the meeting came across much more inflammatory regarding potential reductions in the wheat export allowance and potential imposition of an export tax than was actually the case in the actual Russian language memo release. However, all of this could make for interesting trade in the overnight session on September 3 as the markets will be closed for the day session for the Labor Day holiday.
 The annual Chinese soybean buying delegation tour through U.S. soybean-growing regions is currently underway, which typically features the ceremonial announcements of multiple millions of tonnes of soybean purchases being signed under “frame contracts.†However, that will not be the case this year given the current U.S./Chinese trade war. In comments by those among the tour, an unnamed buyer for one of China’s top-five crushers was quoted as saying, “We can cover our demand until November. Bur for December and January, we are a little short of beans.†Additional comments by him indicated ideas that Chinese total purchases of U.S. soybeans for December and January should be around 13 MMT. The market found some support yesterday following these comments, but how the “should be†comment is taken can go either way. Yes, China should be buying that much soybeans from the U.S. during the period, but may not be able to under current conditions, or taken verbatim that he believes those purchases could be made this year. The key point to the comments from the delegation appears to be that there is the possibility for purchases of U.S. soybeans to begin again, but only at a time when South American soybeans are no longer available and/or priced comparably to U.S. values with the 25% import tariff in effect.
 Statistics Canada will release their crop production report tomorrow morning. The average trade estimate of the all wheat crop is 30.6 MMT (29.3-32.7 MMT range of ideas) and would be up marginally from last year’s 30.0 MMT, but below the USDA’s latest estimate of 32.5 MMT. The canola crop is seen at 20.2 MMT (19.3-21.0 MMT range) vs 21.3 MMT last year, while soybeans are estimated at 7.0 MMT (6.7-7.3 MMT range) vs 7.7 MMT last year. The oat crop is estimated at 3.3 MMT (3.1-3.5 MMT range) vs 3.7 MMT last year.
ï‚· Tomorrow is first notice day for September contracts, with soybean deliveries expected to be heavy and moderate for corn.
ï‚· The head of the China Feed Industry Association said China can reduce soybean imports by 10 MMT annually simply by switching to a lower protein feed for hog operations, with additional reductions by switching to other SBM substitutes such as canola or cottonseed meal.
 Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said the notable dryness occurring across the eastern portion of the county is likely to continue over at least the next three months, citing only a 30% possibility of rainfall exceeding average levels during the period. This will obviously keep the already-significantly struggling wheat crop under stress and essentially guarantees the USDA’s crop estimate will need to see a notable reduction(s) at some point. They’re still estimating the crop at 22.0 MMT vs 21.3 MMT last year, but a crop below 17 MMT certainly appears to be possible/likely. The Bureau also noted increasing ideas of dryness moving into Western Australia, as well, where growing conditions have been much better so far.
 China sold 2.615 MMT of the 3.966 MMT of corn offered at this week’s 1st state reserve auction, the largest amount sold at an individual auction since late May. Additionally, the $227.79/tonne average price paid was the highest since mid-July. A total of nearly 70 MMT of corn has now been sold this year through state reserve auctions.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 101k tonnes of corn to Mexico for 2018/19 delivery this morning.
 An official with the Indonesian Biofuels Producer Association said the country should export around 1 MMT of biodiesel this year vs just 300k tonnes in 2017 as exports to the EU have increased sharply since March upon the EU’s court-ordered removal of import duties. Through July, Indonesia already had exported a total of 717k tonnes of biodiesel. The association sees Indonesian biodiesel production this year at around 5 MMT.
 Syria’s state grain agency is seeking 200k tonnes of soft milling wheat from Russia, Romania or Bulgaria for Oct 15-Dec 15 shipment.
ï‚· Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/33228 for details of this morning’s Export Sales report. Weather Rains over the coming 3-4 days look to be .50-1.5â€, isolated to 1.5â€+, north of a line from Kansas City to Chicago to Detroit, with limited amounts elsewhere. The 6- 10 day period shows more rains with .50-1.5†amounts for most of the belt, with only the southern 1/3 to ½ of IL, IN and OH seeing lighter amounts.