-Brazilian soybean/corn planting remains ahead of average
-Brazilian soybean exports slowing seasonally
-Heavy western corn belt rains to largely limit U.S. harvest over next 7-10 days
-Heavy western corn belt rains to largely limit U.S. harvest over next 7-10 days
Corn and soybeans took a breather overnight following yesterday’s solid price gains, which were spurred by optimism over the new NAFTA agreement and expected modest near term harvest delays given the wetter pattern over the next 10 days or so.
 A wire service survey of Brazilian ag industry participants indicated average expectations for this year’s Brazilian soybean crop is 120.4 MMT, up slightly from last year’s 119.3 MMT crop, while the range of ideas was 118.0-122.0 MMT. USDA currently has the crop at 120.5 MMT. Planted area is estimated at 36.14 million hectares (89.3 million acres), up 2.8% from last year’s 35.15 million hectares (86.9 million acres).
 Safras & Mercado estimates 5% of the Brazilian soybean crop is planted vs less than 1% at this time last year and 2% average. Planting in Parana is 21% complete, up from 12% the previous week and substantially ahead of last year’s 2% and average of 8%. The estimated 1st corn crop planting is 28% complete vs 25% at this time last year.
 Brazil exported 4.6 MMT of soybeans in September, down solidly from 8.1 MMT in August as the seasonal decline continues, and were only slightly larger than year ago Sept exports of 4.3 MMT. Marketing year to date (Feb-Sept) exports of 67.6 MMT compare to last year’s same-period exports of 60.3 MMT. Last year’s Oct-Jan exports totaled 8.5 MMT so it will be very interesting to see what happens with the Chinese situation as Brazilian exportable supplies dwindle in the coming months. Chinese soybean stocks at ports are thought to be record high, but the question will be if they are able to manage on remaining Brazilian exports and stocks until this year’s crop becomes available beginning in February. Brazil exported 3.4 MMT of corn in September vs 2.9 MMT in August, but well below last year’s record Sept exports of 5.9 MMT. Marketing year to date (Mar-Sept) corn exports of 8.4 MMT are down sharply from last year’s 14.8 MMT.
ï‚· Taiwan bought 110k tonnes of U.S. wheat for Nov-Dec shipment, being split between HRW, DNS and white wheat.
ï‚· U.S. corn harvest is 26% complete, in line with market expectations, and continues to run solidly ahead of last year and average of 16% and 17% respectively. While a turn to wetter weather will slow activity in the near term, no major concerns exist. Soybean harvest is 23% complete, up from 14% the previous week, and is slightly ahead of the 20% for both last year and average. Corn and soybean crop conditions were both unchanged last week, while improvements in both crops were seen in IA, NE, IL, IN and OH, with declines in the Dakotas, WI and MI.