-Wheat tour estimates massive KS crop potential
-No USDA sales announcements
-Russia sees modestly lower grain crop but higher exports
-Favorable US forecast/good Brazilian rains expected in some areas
-Cattle on Feed report this afternoon
NOTE: Due to travel schedules, there will not be a CBOT Morning Newsletter on Monday.
 The Wheat Quality Council’s final yield assessment of the Kansas crop put the state’s average yield at 58.1 bushels/acre, easily the highest-ever tour estimate, which was previously 49.1 bu/acre for the 2012 crop, and would be a new all-time record yield for Kansas in exceeding 2016’s current record of 57.0 bu/acre. We would note the tour has underestimated the Kansas yield in each of the last five years, ranging from a 1.0 bu/acre underestimation in 2018 to an 8.4 bu/acre miss in the 2016 record yield year. The average difference between tour-estimated yields and actual yields for the last five tours (no tour last year due to COVID) has been 3.4 bu/acre, but a bit less at 2.2 bu/acre taking out the large difference in 2016. Using the USDA’s 6.9 million harvested acres estimate, the KS crop would be implied at a whopping 401 million bushels, 70 million above the USDA’s estimate this month of 331 million, 53 million larger than any crop over the last five years and the 2nd largest of the last 18 years. While there is still plenty of growing season to go, the overall weather picture looks quite favorable with another 2+ inches of rain for the state expected over the next two weeks. Given the huge yields, lower protein content is expected, which would likely create a protein premium play this year, particularly if HRS production struggles.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
 Russia’s Deputy Ag Minister said this year’s wheat crop is expected to be 80.7 MMT, similar to other recent private estimates,
and compares to last year’s 85.9 MMT (USDA 85.4 MMT), but is below USDA’s current assessment of this year’s crop of 85.0
MMT. The total grain crop potential this year was pegged at 127 MMT vs 133 MMT but, despite the modest decline, they see
total grain exports in 21/22 bumping up to 51 MMT from 48 MMT in 20/21. Current ideas on the new grain export duty regime
taking effect on June 2 are leaning towards a $30/tonne duty on wheat, $40/tonne barley and $50/tonne corn.
ï‚· The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated the Argentine soybean harvest at 85% complete, jumping from 71% a week
earlier, with the corn crop now 28% harvested vs 25% last week and remaining well behind last year’s 44%. The exchange’s
crop estimates held steady at 43.0 MMT soybeans (USDA 47.0 MMT and 46.0 MMT corn (USDA 47.0 MMT). Wheat planting is
underway, estimated at 4% complete.
ï‚· French soft wheat crop conditions held steady for the 2nd consecutive week at 79% good/excellent and compares to 57% last year.
ï‚· A bill is set to be introduced by Democratic lawmakers proposing a $2.00/gallon tax credit for each gallon of sustainable aviation fuel produced. The EIA estimates U.S. daily jet fuel use at around 45 million gallons/day, roughly 6% of total petroleum usage. Support for the bill on the Republican side is debatable.
 This afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. The average estimate of May 1 cattle on feed is 103.9% of last year (103.0-105.7 range of ideas) and follows the previous month’s 105.3 (COVID comparison to last year). April placements are estimated at 122.5 (117.7-139.7 range) vs 128.3 in April, while April marketings are estimated at 133.0 (129.0-136.4 range) vs 101.5 in March.
Weather
Very good rains remain in the forecast for safrinha corn areas of Parana and MGDS with 2-5†totals possible over the two weeks, but only ½ inch totals remain in the forecast for Mato Grosso.
Excellent rains remain in the U.S. forecast for the next two weeks, along with above normal temps.