-Russian grain exports said slowed by government documentation delays
-EU corn crop raised/imports lowered
-Weekend Argentine rain event to be watched closely
-Cattle on Feed report this afternoon
ï‚· Russian grain traders said they have been experiencing delays in being provided grain export documentation from the
government, which has resulted in several vessels’ departures being late. Traders view this as the government’s attempt to
manage the flow of grain exports prior to start of the recently-announced export tax and quota to start February 15 in order to prevent a flood of exports over the next 6-8 weeks.
 The European Commission raised their estimate of 2020/21 EU-27 corn production (excluding UK) to 62.5 MMT from 60.2 MMT previously, resulting in a reduction in estimated EU corn imports to 19.0 MMT from 21.0 MMT previously. These estimates compare to USDA’s 63.7 MMT production (66.7 MMT last year) and imports of 19.0 MMT (18.6 MMT), but USDA estimates still include the UK even though corn production in the UK is extremely limited (i.e. less than 200k tonnes). The Commission ticked their estimate of EU common wheat production up to 116.1 MMT from 115.8 MMT previously, leaving estimated exports unchanged at 24.0 MMT.
ï‚· IEG Vantage revised their 2021 U.S. corn planted acreage ideas to 91.159 million acres from 91.742 million previously and
reflecting nearly unchanged area from this year’s 90.978 million. They raised new crop soybean acreage to 89.435 million acres from 89.065 million previously and up solidly from this year’s 83.105 million. Winter wheat acreage was put at 31.916 million acres, up from 31.501 million previously and last year’s 30.415 million, while “other spring†wheat acreage was estimated at 11.690 mil acres vs 12.670 million previously and 12.250 million last year. Durum wheat acreage was put at 1.830 million, unchanged from previous ideas and up from 1.684 million for 2020.
ï‚· Argentine soybean planting is 71% complete vs 73% last year and in line with the 5-year average of 72% according to the Ag
Secretary. They indicate corn planting is 68% complete vs 70% last year and 67% average. We would note, considerable
differences in Argentine planting ideas exist as the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reflects corn planting at 55% complete, but is similar regarding soybean planting at 68% complete.
 USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be out this afternoon. The average trade estimate of cattle on feed as of December 1 is 100.0% of last year (99.1-100.8 range of ideas) vs 101.3 last month and would be the first month not above year ago levels, if verified, in five months. November placements are estimated at 91.4 (85.5-95.2 range) and follows October placements which were also notably below year ago levels at 89.0. November marketings are estimated at 98.4 (97.2-102.3 range) vs 99.9 in October.
Weather
Brazil saw rains of .20-.80†across most of Parana, Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso yesterday, as well as the southern ½ of MGDS and Minas Gerais. No notable changes were seen in the forecast today. Rains of .50-1.5â€+ will fall with coverage of around 95% in all Brazilian growing regions in the next 5 days with only western MGDS looks to see less than .50â€. The 6-10 day period shows continued solid and widespread activity with 1-3†expected in most of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, with totals of .75-1.5â€+ in MGDS, Minas Gerais and Parana and generally less than .50†in Santa Catarina and RGDS.
Argentina saw .25-.75†across La Pampa and the southern ½ of Buenos Aries yesterday, with dry weather in the rest of the
Argentine growing regions. The expected weekend event continues to indicate rains of .40-1†with coverage of around 90%. The 6-10 day outlook still looks mostly dry.