-NOPA soybean crush report on Monday – record Oct crush expected
-Argentine forecast pulls back on rain ideas
-Export Sales mostly uneventful
NOTE: Due to travel schedules, fundamental posts on Market Insights next week will be limited/delayed. Our weekly posts for Export Sales data, ethanol data, etc., may only include our regular sets of tables/charts detailing the data itself. There will not be a CBOT Morning Newsletter posted during the week.
 On Monday, NOPA will release their monthly soybean crush data report at 11:00 AM CT. The average estimate of soybean crush by NOPA members in October is 177.1 million bushels (170.0-183.0 million range of ideas), up from 161.5 in October and reflecting an expected new record for the month in exceeding last year’s 175.4 million bushels. The average trade estimate would imply October nationwide crush of 187.5-188.0 million bushels and would put total crush through the first two months of 2020/21 around 359 million bushels vs 349 million last year. The average estimate of end October NOPA
soybean oil stocks is 1.448 billion pounds (1.329-1.625 billion range), ticking up from 1.433 billion in September and slightly above year ago October stocks of 1.423 billion pounds.
 Brazilian ag consultant Datagro estimates farmers have already sold 53% of this year’s expected soybean crop. We would note, though, we have seen other estimates higher at 60%+, as well.
ï‚· The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said recently-improved rains and forecasts for additional amounts in the near term outlook will help push Argentine corn and soybean planting ahead, which they estimate at 31% and 20% complete, respectively. They maintained their early crop ideas at 50 MMT for
soybeans and 48 MMT for corn.
ï‚· French soft wheat planting is now 88% complete vs 76% last week and 70% last year. Corn harvest is essentially complete at 98%.
ï‚· Algeria ended up buying roughly 600k tonnes of optional-origin wheat following their recent tender, with prices mostly around $274.50/tonne c&f for January shipment. The vast majority is expected to be French origin, with some German and Polish possibly in the mix, as well. In their previous tender, Algeria bought 700k tonnes of wheat of October 22 at $275-$276/tonne c&f.
ï‚· South Korea bought 130k tonnes of optional-origin corn overnight for Feb-Mar shipment at $237.90-$239.50/tonne c&f.
ï‚· Pakistan tendered for 400k tonnes of wheat for March arrival, but preferred arrivals starting in January if possible. Just last week, Pakistan bought 320k tonnes of wheat, as well.
ï‚· There were no daily USDA sales announcements this morning.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/42098 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales of 1.468 MMT (54.0 million bushels) were within market expectations of 800k-1.8 MMT and were right in line with the previous two weeks’ sales of 53.6 million and 59.0 million bushels. This week’s activity included new net sales to China of 565k tonnes, bringing their total purchases for 2020/21 to 27.6 MMT vs 7.9 MMT at this time last year.
ï‚· Corn sales last week were 978k tonnes (38.5 mil bu), in line with market expectations of 700k-1.6 MMT, but declined significantly from the previous three weeks’ massive sales of 72-103 million bushels/week, while being the 2nd lowest of the first 10 weeks of the 2020/21 marketing year.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales of 301k tonnes (11.0 million bushels) were at the lower end of market expectations of 200-700k tonnes, down solidly from the previous two weeks’ 21.9 and 27.3 mil bu and were the 2nd lowest of the first 23 weeks of the 2020/21 marketing year.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales last week of 145k tonnes were towards the bottom of market expectations of 100-400k tonnes, down considerably from the previous week’s 331k tonnes and were the lowest of the first 6 weeks of 2020/21. Soybean oil sales were easily a marketing year high at 88k tonnes, but large sales were already known given the USDA’s previous daily sales announcements during the week of 63k tonnes (33k India, 30k South Korea).
Weather
Rains of .25-.75†fell across around 75% of all the Brazilian growing regions yesterday. Daily hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will bring rains of .75-1.5â€+ to the majority of the Brazilian growing regions in the next 5 days, with only the southern ½ of RGDS to miss the rains. Similar activity continues in the 6-10 day period with .75-1.5â€+ amount and 95% coverage expected, with only RGDS again missing out. Argentina saw .25-.75†across La Pampa, the southern ½ of Cordoba and southeast 1/3 of Buenos Aries yesterday, while being dry elsewhere. The models over the next five days remain in decent
agreement but with changes. Ideas now call for the rains to generally miss the heart of their growing regions and fall in southern Buenos Aries, most of La Pampa, Cordoba and up into Corrientes. Totals in these areas look to be in the .40-1†range, with amounts elsewhere less than .25â€. Limited and light rains of generally less than .25†and coverage of around 55% are expected in the 6-10 day period.