-Australian wheat prices under pressure amid huge crop expectations
-Brazil allows GMO soybean imports
-USDA attache sharply raises Chinese corn import expectations
-Argentine soybean crop potential questioned
-USDA baseline projections released this afternoon
-Trade estimate summary for next week’s USDA reports
USDA’s monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports will be out next Tuesday, November 10. A summary of the trade estimates is on the following page. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/41995.
 In a report released yesterday afternoon, the USDA ag attaché sharply raised their expectations for 2020/21 Chinese corn imports to 22.0 MMT from 7.0 MMT previously (the official USDA forecast), citing expectations for additional TRQs to be issued in 2021 amid high domestic prices, strong demand and the need to rebuild stocks. Please see our Market Insights post at
https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/42013 for more details.
ï‚· USDA daily sales announcements today were: 132k tonnes of soybeans to China, 272k tonnes of soybeans to unknown, 30k tonnes of soybean oil to South Korea and the late reporting of 207k tonnes of corn to unknown.
 Brazil’s ag ministry officially published a rule allowing for imports of GMO soybeans from the U.S., clearing a hurdle which was viewed as a potentially limiting factor following their temporary elimination of non-Mercosur import tariffs through the end of the year.
 The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said recent rains have helped very early soybean planting activity, but the current La Nina event is trimming new crop production ideas with the exchange estimating this year’s crop at 46.5 MMT vs 49.0 MMT last year. This is in sharp contrast to the USDA’s current ideas for a moderate increase this year to 53.5 MMT. If the exchange’s ideas prove correct, a 7 MMT shortfall from USDA ideas would create a much different new crop demand, particularly for the products as roughly 80% of Argentine production is typically used for crush.
 Australian wheat into Southeast Asian countries is available at prices below Black Sea origin wheat for the first time in four years given the huge expected Australian crop this year. Private ideas of this year’s crop have increased to as high as 32 MMT of late, on expectations of New South Wales to harvest a record 13.2 MMT, well above USDA’s last official estimate of 28.5 MMT and more than double last year’s droughtravaged 15.2 MMT crop. Australian Prime White wheat for January shipment into Southeast Asia is quoted around $275/tonne c&f vs Black Sea values of $285/tonne c&f. ABARES’ last official estimate was 28.9 MMT.
 Brazilian soybean crush association Abiove sees this year’s soybean crop at 132.6 MMT vs 131.7 MMT previously, in line with most ideas falling in a 131-135 MMT range and compares to last year’s 126.0 MMT crop. The group expects new crop soybean exports of 83.5 MMT vs 82.0 MMT previously forecast and old crop exports of 82.0 MMT. (USDA 85.0 MMT, 81.0 MMT old crop).
 USDA will release the early long-term 10-year baseline balance sheet projections this afternoon at 2:00 PM CT. As they have done in recent years, USDA publishes their baseline projections in early November, providing only the balance sheets themselves and then follows up with the full report including their commentary sometime in February. The early baseline release does provide their first look at next year’s balance
sheet ideas, but we deem the new crop outlooks released at the USDA Ag Outlook conference in late February of greater fundamental value. The baseline projections are done primarily for long-term budgetary purposes.
 France’s soft wheat crop is now 76% planted vs 66% last week and 63% last year and is in line with the 5-year average pace. Corn harvest is nearly complete at 94% and is running roughly nine days ahead of average.
ï‚· Following their recent tender, Pakistan bought 320k tonnes of wheat priced at $286.20/tonne c&f expected be sourced from France and Australia. Egypt ended up buying 300k tonnes of Russian wheat in their tender this week, priced at $275.30-$276.30/tonne c&f for Dec-Jan shipment periods.
Weather
Rains of generally less than .25†fell across the southern 2/3 of Buenos Aries yesterday, while dry weather dominated the remainder of the Argentine growing regions yesterday, as well as all of Brazil. In Brazil, rains in the next 3 days will be confined to far northern Minas Gerais and Goias with totals in the .35-.75†range. By Monday, into Tuesday, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms look to develop and bring totals of .50-1â€+ with coverage of around 75-80% of all areas. Similar-type activity is expected in the 6-10 day period producing .75-1.5â€, isolated to 1.5â€+ amounts with coverage around 75-85%. Dry conditions are expected in Argentina through the weekend, but by early next week, showers and thunderstorms look to bring totals of .50-1â€+ to La Pampa, the southern ½ of Buenos Aries and northern ½ of Corrientes. Most areas look dry in the 6-10 day period, with the exception .50-1†for the northern ½ of Santa Fe and Entre Rios, as well as southern Corrientes by the end of the week.