-USDA reports routine SBM sale, but no soybeans/corn
-Trade estimate summary for September 30 USDA reports
-Cattle on Feed this afternoon
-US hog expansion slows considerably
USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report and Small Grains Annual Summary report next Wednesday, September 30. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at tps://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/41539. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 100k tonnes of soybean meal to unknown for 2020/21 delivery this morning. There were no soybean or corn announcements today.
 Details of China’s previously-announced August soybean imports of 9.6 MMT showed 8.15 MMT came from Brazil and 166k
tonnes from the U.S. Obviously, this is set to reverse in the coming months’ data.
ï‚· South Korea passed on their tender for 68k tonnes for February arrival, which was specifically requested as Brazilian origin only. The lowest offered price was $224/tonne c&f.
 This afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. The average estimate of cattle on feed as of September 1 is 103.3% of last year (102.2-103.9 range of ideas) and compares to the previous month’s 101.5. August placements are seen at 105.8 (100.8-110.0 range) vs 111.0 in July, while August marketings are estimated at 96.6 (95.7-97.5 range) vs 99.4 in July.
 Yesterday afternoon’s quarterly USDA Hogs and Pigs report showed all hogs and pigs as of Sept 1 at 100.7% of last year, slightly above the average estimate of 100.1, but reflecting a considerable slowdown in the expansion seen over the last year and a half or so, as each of the last six quarters’ hog inventory numbers rose 3.6-5.4% from the previous year. In fact, the 0.7% increase was the first quarter since December 2014 to increase less than 1% from the previous year, with the average expansion over the last 23 quarters being an incredible 3.9%. Kept for breeding was 98.5% of last year, slightly above the average estimate of 97.5, while kept for marketing at 100.8 was in line with expectations of 100.6.
Weather
Rains of .40-1†fell across SE MN and then worked into WI, bringing totals of .20-.60†there. Dry weather looks to dominate the
majority of the belt through tomorrow and then by Sunday, a front will work through. Ideas have changed a bit with the rainfall outlay as both models now see totals of .50-1â€+ to fall in MO, IL, IN and MI, with generally less than .25†elsewhere. Some spotty showers are possible Tuesday/Wednesday with most totals to be under .30â€, with coverage of around 75-80%. Conditions then look to quiet down for the rest of next week and the following weekend. Temps in the next 3-5 days will run above average in most of the region. Below average temps then look to take over most of the region for the 6-10 day period. The GFS indicates temps as cold as 32 for areas north of I-80 Friday and possibly Saturday mornings next week.