-USDA reports corn sales to unknown/no soybeans today
-EU lowers corn/wheat crop ideas
-Dryness remains notable concern in some Argentine wheat areas
-Monday first notice day for September deliveries
-Rain prospects remain limited
Soybeans were firm again overnight as we head into the weekend amid light news, limited rain prospects and expectations for conditions to decline again on Monday. Continual Chinese buying and pulling back of yield ideas remain the overriding supportive factors. The notable uncertainty about the Iowa corn crop, in particular, along with the impressive Chinese buying of late, is likely to support corn into the September 11 USDA reports. With the September numbers reflecting the first time USDA officials will be in the fields looking at crops, most are likely to see simply too much risk associated with the upcoming report to entertain much in the way of selling ideas for the time being.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 324k tonnes of corn to unknown for 2020/21 delivery. The wording of the announcement implies that it was a sale previously made but was delayed in being reported. There were no soybean sales announcements today.
 The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimates that more than 25% of Argentina’s wheat areas face potential yield losses of 25-50% this year amid the ongoing dryness in northeastern and northwestern growing areas, as well as in Cordoba. However, rains have improved the largest producing areas of Buenos Aires. It is estimated 6.5 million hectares (16.1 mil acres) of wheat was planted this year, reduced from initial expectations for 6.8 mil hectares (16.8 mil acres) due to the dryness, but would still be in line with last year’s 6.6 mil hectares (16.3 mil acres).
ï‚· The European Commission lowered their estimate of total EU usable soft wheat production to 113.5 MMT from 116.6 MMT
previously, while the corn crop was lowered to 70.2 MMT from 72.6 MMT previously.
 Germany’s ag ministry estimated this year’s wheat crop at 21.9 MMT, down 5.1% from last year’s 23.1%, but the decline is less than initially feared given the 9.1% decline in planted area from last year. Germany was not plagued by the dryness in other parts of the EU, as yields are estimated up 4.4% from last year. Germany’s rapeseed crop is estimated up sharply from last year’s very poor 2.82 MMT at 3.51 MMT.
ï‚· Indonesia will leave the crude palm oil export tax at zero for the 6th consecutive month in September, with the reference price of $738.07/tonne still below the $750 threshold which triggers a tax imposition, but was up solidly from $656.89 last month.
ï‚· The planned Argentine port workers strike for today was suspended as talks between the government and union officials were set for September 2.
ï‚· Monday is first notice day for September deliveries.
Weather
Rains of .20-.75†moved in to western MN overnight, with totals of .40-1â€+ falling in central WI, .25-.75†in central MI and some
spotty showers bringing generally less than .50†to IN and OH. Limited rains (generally less than .35â€) still look to fall in most of IA, although totals of .35-1†are indicated by the GFS in the eastern 1/3 of the state. Totals of generally less than .35†are also seen for central sections of IL and IN. Elsewhere, totals of .40-1†look to fall across the corn belt. The 6-10 day forecast has mixed ideas. The European sees little to no rains to fall west of a line from around Kansas City to Chicago, with .30-1†in the rest of the region. The GFS sees totals of .25-.75†to fall in SE MN, far SE IA and most of MO, as well as down into the OH River Valley, with generally less than .35†elsewhere. There is no confidence bias regarding either idea. The 11-16 day outlook continues to see a NW flow aloft to produce average to a bit less than average rainfall and below average temps to the Midwest. The GFS continues to indicate the potential for temps as cold as 34 degrees in western MN, northwest IA and the eastern Dakotas the morning of Sept. 8th. The European has also jumped onto this idea and it is now only 2 days into this period, so confidence is increasing on the potential for it to occur.